Donald Trump has a habit of angering and confusing China. During his first presidential campaign, he accused China of “raping” the US through unfair trade practices. But later in his first term as US President, Trump also called Chinese President Xi Jinping a “good friend”.
Trump suggested during the 2024 presidential campaign that he would be tough on China in a second term, and it’s unlikely that anything will change just days away from becoming president.
Trump has suggested he could raise tariffs on all Chinese goods to 60%, and is likely to appoint Marco Rubio as secretary of state and Mark Waltz as national security adviser. Both are “pro-China” who believe Washington should toughen its stance against Beijing and view China as a national security threat to the US.
Beijing has tried to prepare for the tough US environment, which may explain why it has increased trade with Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East in recent years. Therefore, China wants to engage the West, at least the non-American part of it, for many economic, political, and security reasons.
The Chinese government may see Ottawa as a solution to help meet China’s energy needs, as Canada is rich in oil, coal and iron. It could even warm up to Canberra, as Australia has abundant lithium, which is vital for making electric vehicles.
Ultimately, however, China may need to maintain and improve its relationship with the EU. The EU has the distinction of being China’s second largest trading partner, and exports to the EU have increased over the past few years. This came as Beijing shifted away from the “old three” exports – home appliances, furniture and clothing – to the tech-intensive “new three”, manufacturing electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar cells.
new products from china
Since the “New Three” represent an important component in China’s economic development, the EU, as an important consumer of such products, represents an important market for China. However, the EU is not an easy win for China.
Brussels has accused Beijing of unfairly subsidizing Chinese electric vehicle companies and has imposed tariffs of up to 45.3% on these goods from the end of October 2024. But China may have enough room to smooth out relations with the European bloc, and there are signs that that is happening. However, the recent controversy over China’s possible involvement in anchor dragging in the Baltic Sea to damage communication cables will not help matters.
Fortunately for China, the EU is not a united front. The voting pattern on tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in 2024 revealed an interesting fact: ten countries supported them, five opposed and 12 abstained.
Potentially, Beijing could influence opponents and fence-sitters in Brussels by lowering barriers to entry for EU companies entering the Chinese market and reducing subsidies for Chinese companies competing in Europe.
China has a “no borders” partnership with Russia, and this has proven a matter of concern to the West and especially Europe. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, NATO declared that: “The ambitions and coercive policies of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) challenge our interests, security and values.”
Growing concerns over China’s activities in Europe and Asia may have prompted NATO to invite Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea (known as the Asia Pacific 4 or AP4) to a June 2022 summit. While European officials have rejected a formal alliance between NATO and Asian states, there are frequent discussions and meetings between the two sides.
Beijing could help ease Western fears that China is a security threat by resolving one of Europe’s toughest geopolitical issues: the Ukraine-Russia war, although that seems unlikely. However, efforts to help create a peace settlement could reduce Western perceptions of the “Chinese threat.”
Association with America
China will continue talks with America. Apart from being China’s third-largest trading partner after the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the European Union, the Western superpower remains a technological, economic and military power.
Former US President John F. Kennedy once wrote: “When written in Chinese, the word “crisis” is composed of two characters – one representing danger and one representing opportunity.” If China plays its cards right, the threat Trump appears to represent may not be as significant to its economy as Trump first thought, which is not always predictable.
,Author: Chee Meng Tan, Assistant Professor of Business Economics, University of Nottingham)
,disclosure statement: Chee Meng Tan does not work for, consult to, hold shares in, or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has not received any information beyond his or her academic appointment. Have not disclosed relevant affiliations)
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