Are the results of Pakistan’s terror policy now reaching its fields and barns? With India keeping the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance, severe water shortages in Sindh and Balochistan are leading to fears of “economic genocide” in agricultural sectors.Months after New Delhi suspended the decades-old treaty following the Pakistan-sponsored Pahalgam terror attack, Pakistan is grappling with a severe water crisis that is now threatening agriculture, livelihoods and regional economies in parts of Sindh and Balochistan.The shortage has particularly hit Sindh, home to Pakistan’s financial capital Karachi, where political leaders, farmers and water experts are raising concerns over dwindling supplies and unequal distribution.Sindh and Balochistan are facing severe water shortages, a crisis affecting nearly one-third of Pakistan’s population.
India’s tough stance after Pahalgam
India’s response to the Pahalgam terror attack went beyond military action under Operation Sindoor. One of New Delhi’s most significant diplomatic measures was the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, signaling a “zero tolerance” approach towards Pakistan.Reinforcing that position, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh recently made it clear that India has no intention of softening its stance.He said, “By suspending the Indus Water Treaty after the Pahalgam terror attack, we had said that those whose tears have dried should not expect water from us. We will not allow the waters of the Indus to reach the patrons of terrorists and enemies of humanity.”The comment doubled down on New Delhi’s position that terrorism and normal bilateral arrangements cannot co-exist.
Sindh’s irrigation network is under stress
According to Dawn, the crisis is increasingly visible around the Sukkur Barrage, one of the largest and most important irrigation structures on the Indus River. The barrage supports millions of acres of agricultural land in parts of Sindh and Balochistan, making it vital to Pakistan’s agricultural economy.Water shortage in Sindh’s canal network has reached worrying levels. Sources quoted by Dawn said the North West Canal is facing an alarming shortfall of 64.1 per cent, Rice Canal 38 per cent and Dadu Canal 82 per cent.The situation is being further complicated by allegations of illegal extraction and unequal water distribution in upstream areas.Sindh Irrigation Department data reportedly shows that Punjab is drawing 53,394 cusecs of water against its allotted share of 44,000 cusecs, which is 21 per cent more than its entitlement.Similarly, Taunsa Barrage is said to be releasing 25,694 cusecs of water against its sanctioned allocation of 24,000 cusecs, which is an excess withdrawal of about 9.3 per cent.Also, the water level in Chashma Barrage is continuously rising, indicating accumulation of water in the upper areas, while water depletion is increasing in the lower areas.
The round of political allegations and counter-allegations has intensified
The worsening crisis has triggered intense political exchanges within Pakistan.Jamaat-e-Islami chief Hafiz Naeem ur Rehman has accused the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)-led Sindh government of failing to address the chronic water shortage in Karachi despite being in power for years.However, the PPP has directed its criticism toward federal officials and water managers.PPP Sindh Chairman Nisar Ahmed Khuhro has repeatedly warned that Sindh is being deprived of its fair share of water despite being one of the most productive agricultural regions of Pakistan.He mentioned that Sindh produces about 5.5 million tonnes of rice annually and generates about $1.4 billion through rice exports.Warning of economic consequences, Khuhro described the cut in Sindh’s Kharif season water allocation as “economic genocide” of the province.“Sindh produces 67 percent of the country’s agricultural output, yet it is being deprived of its fair share of water,” Khuhro said.
Farmers are struggling due to drying up of canals
The crisis is already being felt on the ground.According to Dawn, the severe shortage is affecting the right bank canals of the Sukkur Barrage system that irrigate Larkana, Qamar-Shahdadkot, Dadu, Shikarpur and parts of Balochistan.Ishaq Mugeri, former chairman of Qambar-Shahdadkot chapter of Sindh Abadgar Board, said the North Western Canal is facing a shortfall of 64.1 per cent, the Rice Canal is facing a shortfall of 38 per cent and the Dadu Canal is facing a shortfall of 82 per cent.The figures show the scale of the problem. Dadu Canal was allocated 4,995 cusecs of water, but is currently getting only 860 cusecs of water. The North Western Canal is getting 2,100 cusecs of water against the allocation of 6,260 cusecs, while the Rice Canal is getting 5,300 cusecs of water against the sanctioned share of 8,700 cusecs.Years of delayed infrastructure upgrades and incomplete remodeling of irrigation channels have further worsened the situation, leaving farmers unable to start seasonal farming.“We are still waiting for water to reach the last mile to prepare paddy nurseries,” Mugeri told Dawn.
Growing challenge for Pakistan
Pakistan’s dependence on the Indus River system has long made water security a strategic issue. As shortages grow and political disputes over allocations escalate, the crisis is increasingly exposing weaknesses in the country’s irrigation management and agricultural infrastructure.With India maintaining its tough stance on the Indus Water Treaty and internal disputes over distribution escalating, the water challenge facing Pakistan is set to become even more difficult in the coming months.