Nifty likely to trade in range; 23,800 is a key breakout barrier

Technical analysts expect the Nifty to remain rangebound this week with mild bullish undertones, as the index continues to strengthen amid mixed domestic and global cues. Most experts see the 23,800–24,000 zone as a critical breakout barrier, while the 23,150–23,250 band is expected to provide key support on the downside.

Ajit Mishra
SVP- Research, Religare Broking

Where is Nifty going?
Going forward, the Nifty continues to trade with a corrective bias and a downward shift in its trading range, reflecting indecision amid mixed domestic and global cues. Immediate support is placed around the 23,150–23,250 zone, followed by the 22,900 mark. On the upside, the 23,800–24,000 zone is the key barrier, and a decisive breakout above this band could bring fresh momentum towards the 24,500–24,650 zone.

Trading strategy
One can consider a “sell on rise” approach, with a stop-loss at 24,200 in the 23,800-24,000 range in Nifty and downside targets around 23,400 and 23,250. Traders can also consider accumulating energy and pharma-related ETFs on dips. For energy exposure, energy ETFs can accumulate in the 39-41 zone with a stop-loss at 37 for a positional target of 46 and 50. Likewise, Farmabies can rally in the 24-25 range with stoplosses at 23 for positional targets of 28 and 30.

Top Stock Bets

Angel One – CMP Rs. 339.35, Rs. Stop loss at 318, Rs. 378 targeting.

Angel One is seeing renewed buying interest after a volume-backed breakout from consolidation, signaling an improvement in momentum and potential upside continuation.

Steel Authority of India – CMP Rs. 201.21, Rs. Stop loss at 189, Rs. A target of 224.

SAIL has reclaimed its multi-year highs on improving volumes, indicating a strengthening momentum and upside potential.

Rajesh Palvia
Head of Research, Axis Securities

Where is Nifty going?
While the market trend is in a consolidation phase rather than exhaustion, the broader framework is still bullish. The 23,800–23,850 zone has blocked seven breakout attempts in two weeks, although a tight range suggests a strong move once crossed. A decisive weekly close above 24,000 and then 24,126 could trigger a rally towards 24,600. On the downside, 23,250–23,150 remains key support. The weekly RSI remains flat above its reference line indicating that the market is in a holding pattern, patiently supportive but selectively bullish.

Trading strategy
Traders can execute a simple bullish strategy known as bull call spread with reduced premium outflow and lower breakeven point, scheduled for June 2nd expiration. In this net delta long strategy, traders should take Rs. 23,800 call strike at 222 requires buying one lot along with Rs. One lot of 24,100 call strikes at 111 need to be sold.

This setup costs Rs. resulting in a maximum outflow of 7,215, which is the highest possible loss. If Nifty closes above 23,911 at the close, the strategy will start generating profit. However, while the risk is limited, so is the potential profit. Maximum Benefit Rs. 12,285, as profit from long 23,800 strike calls will be offset by sold 24,100 strike calls if Nifty closes above 23,911 at expiration.

Top Stock Bets
Equity capital– Rs. 161-158 buy at Rs. Stop loss at 148, target Rs. 185-195.

Following last week’s sharp 13% rally, the stock hit its six-month high of Rs. It broke out of the 134-157 trading range on strong volume, while the daily and weekly RSI levels remain above 50 indicating strong momentum and increasing buying interest.

Trent – Rs. 4,297-4,255 to buy, Rs. 4,155 with stop loss, target Rs. 4,655-4,700.

On the daily chart, the stock confirmed the “flag”, an ongoing pattern breakout around the 4210 level, with huge volumes. The daily and weekly RSI are in positive territory, quoting above the 50 mark, indicating increasing strength.

Rohan Shah
Technical Analyst, Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates

Where is Nifty going?
After facing resistance around 24500-24700 zone, the index has gone through a measured pullback. Technically, the weekly structure reflects tight volatility compression with the formation of an internal bar setup. A decisive move above 24000 will trigger a new directional momentum and potentially pave the way towards the 24700 level.

Meanwhile, on the downside, 23200 and 22700 are expected to act as key support levels. Trading Strategy For an upside target of 24700 it would be prudent to buy Nifty futures above the intermediate resistance level of 24000, maintaining a stop-loss below the 23700 level.

Top Stock Bets
Vishal Mega Mart – CMP Rs. 121, Rs. Stop loss at 114, Rs. A target of 135.

Rs. After a sharp rebound from the 100 zone, the stock is signaling a possible trend reversal, with a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern and improving RSI momentum supporting the move.

Vardhaman Textiles – CMP Rs. 610, Rs. Stop loss at 578, Rs. A target of 675.

The stock has broken out of a four-year ascending triangle pattern, signaling strength in the prevailing uptrend. The move was supported by healthy volume activity, reflecting new buying interest and improving sentiment.