The airline industry is on track to miss its 2050 net zero target for aviation. The number of passengers is continuously increasing, while alternatives to fossil fuels remain underdeveloped. Missing this target matters because aviation contributes significantly to climate change. UK aviation emits approximately 5% of global aviation emissions.
In response, the UK and Australia established “Jet Zero” councils in 2020 and 2023, respectively. These include industry, academic and government figures to lead the necessary changes.
In 2024, the UK government announced it was reforming its Jet Zero Council. It promised that the new Jet Zero Taskforce would “serve as a driving force to make flying a cleaner, greener experience”.
But the configuration of these organizations is suitable for incremental innovation, not the radical innovation needed to address rapidly increasing carbon emissions in the aviation industry. As a general approach, this business is destined to miss targets.
The number of air passengers is projected to increase from approximately 4 billion to more than 10 billion by 2050. This increase could double carbon emissions over the same period.
Addressing the climate impacts of aviation requires a Herculean effort in five main areas: reducing passenger numbers, improving aircraft efficiency, adopting sustainable aviation fuels, developing hydrogen or battery-powered aircraft, and protecting the environment. Capturing carbon from.
Not all these levers are equally attractive for the industry. For example, reducing passenger numbers is unpopular as it cuts into revenue, while developing hydrogen aircraft is expensive and technically challenging. However, sustainable aviation fuels are a preferred solution as they can be used in existing aircraft without the need for engine modifications.
But not all sustainable aviation fuels are created equal. Some produce significantly higher CO2 emissions than others.
Governments are well positioned to support carbon-reduction efforts. Nearly 150 countries have adopted the Net Zero pledge, yet many leave it up to individual sectors to drive change.
Jet Zero organizations aim to bridge this gap. While some progress – such as efficiency improvements – may be industry-led, more ambitious changes, such as hydrogen-fuelled aircraft, demand radical innovation.
This includes replacing existing fleets with new models that have not yet been developed and improving existing business models. Such innovation requires significant investment and disrupts established practices, making it a bitter pill for the industry. Jet Zero organizations have the ability to manage and force this change, but success depends on their membership and how they collaborate.
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Analyzing who makes up Jet Zero councils or task forces reveals serious shortcomings. The importance of membership is highly weighted by those in the airline industry – recently 61% for the UK Jet Zero Council and 67% for the Australian Council.
Britain’s new taskforce makes hardly any moves on wider membership or co-operation. Airline industry representation now accounts for 59% of total membership. About 80% of the former industry representatives remain in the new workforce. Although the inclusion of climate representatives is a good step, specific targets regarding zero emissions have been removed. Therefore, despite the potential for change, motivations may be limited.
Airlines must balance net zero commitments with obligations to shareholders, creditors and customers, who often favor the status quo. Supporting net zero in principle does not always translate into meaningful action.
Continuing current practices may still yield benefits. Improved fossil-fuel aircraft designs could reduce emissions by 40% by 2050. Some estimates suggest the gains could be closer to 15% to 20%. But net zero will not be achieved through incremental reforms alone.
Another major drawback is the under-representation of other types of experts. 24% of the UK’s new workforce and 33% of the Australian workforce are engineers. But climate scientists, particularly those outside aviation, are conspicuously absent and have only one presence in the UK workforce. Given the uncertainties around the effectiveness of different strategies, input from independent climate experts is essential for decision making and assessing carbon reduction measures.
Collaboration is also important. The UK’s former Jet Zero Council introduced measures to promote knowledge sharing. In fact, four of its 36 members were specifically assigned this task. In the new workforce this number has reduced from four to three. And the purpose of “challenging existing approaches by engaging disruptors and innovators in the conversation” has been removed. Meanwhile, the Australian Council lacks knowledge-sharing initiatives.
Both councils are at risk of failing to meet their objectives, which are zero-emission flights for the UK and net zero emissions for Australia.
Achieving the necessary change requires broad membership and deep engagement with climate science. There is a continuing need for a clear understanding of the carbon impacts of different measures.
Governments should create smart laws that balance environmental goals with economic reality. While the industry’s costs are considerable, they can be managed wisely over the next 25 years. Fair enforcement of environmental regulations across countries is also one of the keys to keeping markets balanced.
The journey to net zero aviation is undeniably difficult. Despite political will and collaborative efforts, airlines face huge costs and deviations from established practices. But early adopters of a variety of zero-emission technology can gain a competitive edge, win market share and improve their reputation.
Offering guilt-free, zero-emission flights would be transformative. Whatever the market dynamics, the urgency of the climate crisis is clear. Jet Zero organizations hold the key to unlocking the type of change needed to make aviation sustainable – but only if they stand up to the challenge.
,Author: Mark Toon, Senior Lecturer in Marketing and Strategy, Cardiff University)
,disclosure statement: Mark Toon does not work for, consult, own shares in, or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and he has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond his academic appointment. haven’t done)
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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