Israelis will vote on October 7, 2023, in the country’s first general election since the Hamas attack, which triggered a multi-front war in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.The vote is shaping up to be one of the most important in Israel’s recent history, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeking another term even as polls show his coalition could lose power.Yet Israel’s fragmented political system means that pre-election polls rarely tell the whole story, and coalition talks after the vote often determine who ultimately becomes prime minister.Here’s what the polls show, how Israel’s electoral system works, who Netanyahu’s main challengers are and what’s at stake in the election.
What do opinion polls show?
According to news agency Reuters, opinion polls consistently indicate that Netanyahu is heading into the election on the backfoot, with polls predicting that his faction may fall short of retaining power.The Hamas attack on October 7 dealt a major blow to his image as Israel’s security leader, while public confidence in his leadership remains weak despite widespread support for military operations against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.Also, the surveys do not point to any clear alternative government. Israel’s coalition-based politics means that even the party in first place may struggle to form a majority, leaving smaller parties in a powerful bargaining position.Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has repeatedly defied political setbacks in the past, making coalition arithmetic as important as the popular vote.
How are elections held in Israel?
Israel elects the 120-member Knesset through a nationwide system of proportional representation. Instead of voting for individual candidates, Israelis vote for political parties, which receive seats in proportion to their share of the national vote. Any party that crosses the electoral threshold of 3.25 percent wins representation in Parliament.No single party has ever won an absolute majority in the Knesset, making coalition governments the norm.After the results are declared, parties negotiate a coalition to reach the majority of 61 seats required to govern. As a result, smaller parties often become kingmakers and receive policy concessions or cabinet posts in return for their support.The upcoming election is also unusual because Netanyahu’s current Knesset is one of the few in Israeli history to complete its full four-year term after years of political instability between 2019 and 2022.
Who are Netanyahu’s main rivals?
Former military chief Gadi Eysenkot has emerged as one of Netanyahu’s strongest challengers. Having lost his son during the Gaza war, Eisenkot has presented himself as a security-focused leader, while portraying himself as a political outsider with a reputation for integrity.Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid are also seeking a return to power.The two had previously joined forces to oust Netanyahu in 2021 by forming a diverse coalition that included liberals, conservatives and, for the first time, an Islamic Arab party. That government lasted for 18 months before falling.Another major challenger is former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, once a close ally of Netanyahu.Lieberman has since become one of the prime minister’s fiercest critics, accusing him of being too soft on Hamas before breaking with his government.Netanyahu’s own coalition includes his Likud party, Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power and the support of ultra-Orthodox parties, while the opposition also includes Arab parties and leftist democrats led by former General Yair Golan. Party lists may still change before the September nomination deadline.
What are the major issues in the elections?
7th October Accountability: Opposition parties are demanding an independent commission to investigate the failure of Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack, arguing that accountability should be the next government’s first priority.Netanyahu’s government has rejected that approach and instead supported a politically appointed investigation, while also facing scrutiny over its past policy toward Qatar, which provided financial aid to Gaza.National Security: There has been a major shift in Israel’s military strategy since October 7, with long-term operations against the Houthis in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, Iran and Yemen replacing the country’s traditional doctrine of short wars.The continued deployment has intensified debate over military unpreparedness, manpower shortages, and the long-term economic and diplomatic costs of fighting on multiple fronts.Religion and military service: Mandatory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews remains one of the country’s most divisive political issues. Netanyahu’s allies favor preserving broad exemptions for religious students, while most opposition parties want to eliminate them. The debate has morphed into broader questions over the role of religion in public life and Israel’s national identity.Cost of Living: Although security dominates the campaign, economic concerns remain central to many voters. Israelis are struggling with high living costs, expensive housing and increasing domestic pressures.Defense spending increases through 2023, adding another layer to the debate over balancing national security with domestic priorities