For over two decades, the US has been a pioneer in global HIV reaction.

Although President Donald Trump and Tech billionaire Elon Musk stopped foreign aid in the United Nations, the global health agency stated that 2,000 new HIV infections could occur every day globally.

Elon Musk -led Dogge (Government’s Efficiency Department) – A Advisory Board formed by Trump earlier announced that it is cutting 90% of the USAID (US Agency for International Development) foreign aid contracts and $ 60 billion in overall US aids worldwide.

This step can have comprehensive results, especially in the health sector. Beyond the supply of vaccines and the supply of life saving drugs in weak countries, the decision may trigger a global HIV crisis.

On March 17, the World Health Organization (WHO) stated that Trump and Musk’s decision “significantly interrupted” the supply of HIV remedies in eight countries.

The WHO stated that Haiti, Kenya, Lesotho, South Sudan, Burkina Faso, Mali, Nigeria and Ukraine can end their supply of HIV remedies in the coming months.

HIV (Human immunodeficiency virus) is a virus that attacks the body’s immune system, especially the CD4 cells (T cells), which helps in fighting infections.

If left untreated, HIV weakens the immune system over time, which weakens the body for severe infections and diseases.

AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) is the most advanced stage of HIV infection. This occurs when the immune system is severely damaged, and the body can no longer fight with infection or certain types of cancer.

At this stage, even common diseases like pneumonia or tuberculosis can become a threat to life.

HIV is fatal because it destroys the immune system progressively, leaving the body uninterrupted against infections.

Without proper treatment, it can cause serious diseases and death. However, antiretroviral therapy (ART) can help people manage viruses. But with shutdowns of USAID, treatment can be prevented for HIV -infected individuals.

A new lenset study has found that 4.4 to 10.8 million additional new HIV infections and 7.70,000 to 2.9 million HIV -related deaths can be between 2025 and 2030 in children and adults, if the proposed funding is not cut by the top five donors countries including the USA and the UK.

Researchers stated that five countries – America, Britain, France, Germany and Netherlands – have announced international assistance between 8% and 70% between 2025 and 2026, providing more than 90% of international HIV funding, with immediate effect on 20 January, 2025 with the US government with assistance.

Funding cuts in global HIV programs can lead to an increase in infection and deaths, especially in sub-city Africa and between risky groups, researchers warned.

The most affected people will be people in sub-Sahara Africa, as well as drug users, sex workers, and men having sex with men as well as marginalized groups.

Children are also at risk. Since 2015, about 40% of HIV funding in low and moderate income countries have come from international donors.

But with funding cuts to reduce global HIV aid by 2026, many life-saving programs can be interrupted.

The US is the largest donor, which provides about 73% of HIV -related foreign aid. However, by January 2025, it has temporarily stopped all foreign aid funding for 90 days to release its budget.

Programs such as the US President’s emergency plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) support HIV treatment and prevention.

They fund clinics that provide antiretroviral therapy (ART), HIV testing and laboratory services.

These programs also strengthen healthcare systems, train workers, and help prevent diseases such as tuberculosis and maternal health issues, the researchers said.

However, with funding cuts, experts fear that many of these services will be affected.

The study co-writer from Burnett Institute, Australia, Dr. Debra Ten Brink said, “The US has played a major role in fighting HIV, but this deduction is already making it difficult for people to need treatment and testing.”

“If other countries also reduce their support, we can see a big shock in the fight against HIV,” he said.

Recent studies used data from 26 countries to predict the impact of low funds.

If Pepfar stops supporting these programs, HIV infection may increase to 10.8 million cases by 2030.

Deaths may increase by about 2.9 million.

Sub-Sahara Africa will be the most difficult to hit. Prevention efforts such as condom distribution and pre-exposure Profilaxis (PREP) can be cut first.

Testing and treatment services can also cause damage, which increases the risk of HIV transmission and pediatric HIV deaths of the mother-to-child.

Researchers found that between 2010 and 2023, foreign aid for HIVs saw major reforms, with an average of 8.3% per year and death decreased by 10.3%.

Many people were on tracks to meet global goals to eliminate HIV/AIDS by 2036.

However, if funding is cut, he warned that infections and deaths could return to 2010 levels.

Even if funding is restored later, progress may be delayed by 20 to 30 years.

Countries need to develop their own funding strategies to maintain HIV programs.

However, it will take time. The author of the study of Burnett Institute, Dr. Nick Scott said, “We need long -term plan and global cooperation to maintain progress.”

The authors noted the limitations of their study, including the foreign aid funding space unpredictable, and is unknown whether the cut in international aid will increase or not.

He also analyzed 26 countries and then additionally for all low-and moderate income countries, which could not be fully representative of all regions or all American-funded countries.

While the full effect of these funding cuts is still uncertain, researchers said that possible damage may be worse than prediction.

According to UNAIDS, around 40 million people live globally with HIV, based on 2023 data.

Of this number, about 1.3 million in the same year became infected with HIV and 630,000 people died of AIDS -related diseases.

On 20 January, Trump announced the introduction of the process of abolishing WHO’s US membership.