Iran began a week of funeral ceremonies on Friday for former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a joint US-Israeli strike in February. The ceremonies will move from Tehran to Qom, then to Najaf in Iraq, before his burial in his hometown of Mashhad next Thursday. Iranian officials are preparing for an estimated 10 million mourners across the four cities.The list of foreign guests is being shaped on a sharp geopolitical basis. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has confirmed that he will attend, making him the highest-profile foreign leader to do so. Tajik President Emomali Rahmon is also expected to attend the head-of-state level. Iran’s deputy interior minister has confirmed that EU leaders “will not have the honor” of participating in it, citing its failure to condemn the attack that killed Khamenei. The United States, United Kingdom, Israel, Canada, and Australia were not invited.Russia, China and India – all personally invited by President Massoud Pezeshkian – have opted to downgrade. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping will not attend in person; Beijing is sending a senior member of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, and Moscow is expected to send a Security Council official. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declined, citing a previously scheduled visit to Indonesia; New Delhi will be represented by Minister of State Pabitra Margherita and Bihar Governor Arif Mohammad Khan. Congress leader and former Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid is also said to be involved in this. Senior delegations are expected from Iraq, Qatar, Lebanon, Syria, Venezuela, Belarus, North Korea and several Central Asian states. Representatives from Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis and Iraqi Shia militias are also expected to attend.Iranian officials have not confirmed Mojtaba Khamenei’s presence. Since the February attack, which killed and injured his father, Mojtaba has not been seen or photographed in public. The regime says the younger Khamenei is alive and in hiding for his own safety, but Western intelligence officials are casting serious doubts on that claim, with concerns that Tehran is concealing any death or total incapacitation. His absence – or presence – at the funeral will be the most closely watched moment of the week.The funeral also takes place amid constant threats of reprisals by the regime. General Ali Abdullahi, commander of the central Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters, issued a fresh warning on Thursday. “Our enemies should think very carefully about the response of our armed forces to any threat or aggression against our territory,” he said. “We warn our enemies, especially the US and the Zionist entity, against making any miscalculations.“One analyst quoted by Fox News said that “For a regime that claims to lead a front from Beirut to Sanaa, a regional attendance at the funeral of its founder-turned-successor is showing alienation through spectacle.He said, “For Washington, this is a useful readout: The war has made Tehran’s axis smaller and more regional than advertised by the regime.”