The company’s stock has rallied more than 35% this year largely driven by the explosive growth of the weight-loss drug market.
Once seen as a niche category, obesity treatment is now one of the most profitable segments in healthcare, with ever-increasing demand.
Novo Nordisk had an early lead in the space, but Lilly’s drugs — Mounjaro and Zepbound — have grown in popularity and helped eclipse its rival in prescriptions.
In the latest reported quarter, Lilly reported combined revenue of more than $10.09 billion from its obesity and diabetes portfolios, accounting for more than half of its total revenue of $17.6 billion.
“They’re doing a lot of things outside of obesity, but to suggest anything to move the stock price beyond obesity at this point, I don’t know if that would be a realistic statement,” Kevin Gade, chief executive officer of Lilly shareholder Bahl & Gaynor, said ahead of the milestone.
Wall Street estimates that the weight loss drug market will be worth $150 billion by 2030, with Lilly and Novo together controlling most of the estimated global sales.
Investors are now focused on Lilly’s oral obesity drug, orforgliprone, which is expected to be approved early next year.
In a note last week, Citi analysts said the latest generation of GLP-1 drugs is already a “sales phenomenon” and that orforglipron is poised to benefit from “the penetration made by its injectable predecessor”.
Lilly’s recent deal with the White House to lower the price of its weight-loss drugs as well as planned investments to expand the drug’s production bode well for its growth.
Lilly is starting to look like the “Magnificent Seven” again, said James Shinn, director of biopharma equity research at Deutsche Bank, referring to tech heavyweights including Nvidia and Microsoft that have returned much of the market this year.
At one point, investors saw it as part of that elite group but after some disappointing headlines and earnings, it fell out of favor.
Now, however, it appears poised to rejoin the circle, possibly even as an option for investors, especially given recent concerns and weakness in some AI stocks, he added.
Still, analysts and investors are watching whether Lilly can sustain its current growth as the prices of Mounjaro and Zepbound come under pressure, and whether its scale-up plans, its diversified pipeline and dealmaking margins will offset the pressure.
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