Can Jana Naygan beat Leakes? Trade predicts Vijay’s box office fortunes
After the leak and delay in release of CM Vijay’s Jan Nayakan, voices in the trade world are divided. Strong advance booking continues, but piracy and A certificates may deter repeat visitors.
For the first time in years, a Vijay film is entering theaters with more questions than certainties. Despite domestic advance bookings crossing Rs 15 crore, Jan Naygan The chase continues leo And goat In the pre-sale, trading fell short of opening day expectations. Will the HD leak, seven month delay and A certification ultimately affect Vijay’s final film? Or will the emotional pull of seeing the actor on the big screen for the last time outweigh every setback? India Today Digital spoke to trade experts.
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According to trade analyst Ramesh Bala, the film can collect Rs 50-60 crore in India and Rs 75-80 crore worldwide on the first day. The conservative estimate, he says, stems from a combination of factors – HD leaks, a seven-month delay, and the film’s A certificate.
of victory greatest of all time alias goatWhich recorded Rs 29.83 crore in domestic pre-sales before taking a worldwide opening of Rs 126.32 crore. leoMeanwhile, it earned Rs 46.36 crore in advance bookings (except block seats) on the first day and ultimately earned Rs 148.5 crore globally on its opening day.
Conservative estimates despite heavy discussion
Business analyst Ramesh Bala, speaking exclusively to India Today Digital, said: “In India, jan naigaThere can be a collection of Rs 50 to 60 crore on the first day. Worldwide earnings could be between Rs 75 to 80 crore.
Although these estimates are lower than those of Vijay’s previous films, Bala said that several factors have to be taken into account.
He said, “This could be due to the film being leaked. At present, trade analysts are making conservative estimates due to leaks, long delays and some other issues.”
He also believes that there is scope for progress in the film even after its release.
He added, “But there is a possibility that the collections may pick up due to the word of mouth over the weekend. One has to wait and see how the reactions from the first show turn out to be in favor of the film.”
How can a certificate affect collection?
Apart from piracy, Bala pointed out that the film getting an A certificate from the Central Board of Film Certification could also affect its theatrical performance.
“The film getting an A certificate from the Central Board of Film Certification (CBFC) is also working against the film. In A centres, theaters will not allow children in the cinema hall. In B and C centres, theaters may relax the rule of allowing children in the hall. Same was the case with Rajinikanth. CoolieWhich also got A certificate.
He said that the leak is one of the biggest concerns related to the film.
“The leak definitely has an impact Jan Naygan. vijay’s 2023 movie leo 2025-Film earns more than Rs 600 crores greatest of all time alias goat Earned more than Rs 400 crore. At present, it does not seem that the situation will be such that the audience will come again. Jan Naygan Due to leakage. I read a report that around 1.2 crore people have already watched the pirated version. So, we will have to wait and see if Jan Naygan Repeated viewing will be beneficial. Leaks, the A certificate and the seven-month delay have to be taken into account,” he explained.
‘We are underestimating the madness’
Not everyone in business is that cautious.
Ruban Mathivanan, owner of Chennai theater GK Cinemas, believes that despite the piracy controversy, the excitement about Vijay’s farewell film remains intact.
He said, “I think we are underestimating the craze. Of course, the film got leaked, but the demand for tickets remains the same. The demand is virtually the same as it was in January. As H Vinoth said, it is a Vijay Padam, and fans want to celebrate the star for the last time.”
for him, Jan Naygan is much more than just another release from Vijay.
“Jan Naygan “This is a tribute to Vijay and fans will leave no stone unturned to celebrate the legend who entertained people for 33 years,” Ruban said.
‘A void that can never be filled’
A distributor requesting anonymity expressed similar sentiments and argued that Vijay’s star power has historically been unaffected by reviews.
The source said, “Vijay’s films are always blockbusters at the box office, even if they get mixed reviews. Whenever Vijay’s film releases, distributors and exhibitors benefit for many years. Now, his leaving the industry will create a void that can never be filled. There will be hardly a few actors who will have box office success like Vijay. And it is sad to see him leaving cinema at the peak of his career. However, he is now serving the public, something that He always wanted to. So, we have to follow it and wish him all the best.” Said.
Could Jana Naygan surprise everyone?
While business projections remain measured, Jan Naygan It continues to be in exceptional demand in Tamil Nadu and other southern markets. The emotional value of the film as Vijay’s farewell to cinema, coupled with the curiosity surrounding its political message, may still lead to strong viewership once word of mouth reaches its peak.
Whether the HD leaks and A certificate ultimately limit its box office potential or whether fans’ celebration takes it beyond expectations remains to be seen when. Jan Naygan Will be released in theaters on July 23.