‘Bibi is hysterical about this’: How the US-Iran understanding over Lebanon is troubling Israel

Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu (R)

Israel is concerned that the new understanding reached between the United States and Iran could effectively legitimize Tehran’s influence in Lebanon. The emerging agreement between MAGA supremo Donald Trump and Iranian officials could also limit Israel’s ability to act militarily against Hezbollah, Axios reports, citing Israeli sources.The diplomatic involvement comes after months of military escalation and full-scale conflict in the Gulf. But even as Washington and Tehran try to stabilize relations, officials in Jerusalem fear the talks could reshape the security landscape in Lebanon in a way that favors Iran and constrains Israel’s freedom of action.These concerns stem from agreements reached during recent US-Iran talks in Switzerland and a memorandum of understanding signed last week. Israeli officials believe Iran successfully brought Lebanon into broader talks while ensuring security for its ally Hezbollah, at a time when Israel has spent months trying to weaken the group and reduce Tehran’s influence in the country.According to Axios, Israeli officials fear the new framework could result in increased scrutiny from Washington every time Israel seeks to launch attacks in Lebanon. They are also wary of potential pressure from US President Donald Trump to withdraw Israeli forces from southern Lebanon before the Hezbollah threat is fully addressed.The US-Iran memorandum reportedly commits both countries and their allies to end hostilities, including in Lebanon, and preserve the country’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. The agreement followed several rounds of fighting, but a largely renewed ceasefire has been in place since Saturday.Iran had previously threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if Israeli attacks continued and Switzerland would boycott the talks. Once talks began, Lebanon emerged as a major issue. The parties reportedly agreed to establish a new “deconfliction cell” involving mediators from Lebanon and Pakistan and Qatar to help maintain the ceasefire.Israeli sources told Axios that the arrangement undermines the understanding reached with the Biden administration in late 2024. Under the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, Israel retained the right to take action against imminent and emerging Hezbollah threats. Under the new conditions, Israeli officials believe that their operational freedom may be largely limited to imminent threats.They are also troubled by the structure of the new system. Whereas the earlier ceasefire-monitoring framework included Israel, Lebanon, the United States and France, the new arrangement reportedly includes Iran as a direct partner but not Israel. Furthermore, the previous mechanism focused on eliminating Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in southern Lebanon, while the new mechanism is primarily designed to prevent conflict between Israeli forces and Hezbollah.Axios reported that while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains concerned about the nuclear aspects of the US-Iran deal, the Lebanon provisions are currently causing greater concern within his government.One reason is domestic politics. Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah remains a major issue ahead of the elections in October.“Bibi is hysterical about this,” an Israeli source told Axios, referring to Netanyahu by his surname.According to the report, Netanyahu recently asked his close confidant Ron Dermer to use his connections in Trump’s circle to influence discussions on Lebanon. The same source claimed that Dermer’s efforts contributed to a Truth Social post in which Trump threatened action against Iran if it failed to rein in Hezbollah.A US official confirmed to Axios that Dermer was involved and said US negotiators briefed him several times during talks in Switzerland.“We were transparent with them,” the official said.On the Lebanese side, President Joseph Aoun is reportedly open to the new mechanism, as long as the United States remains at its center. Axios reported that the Vice President JD Vance And Trump envoy Jared Kushner briefed Aon about the arrangement during a phone call on Monday.US officials have tried to reassure Israel that the new framework does not sideline its interests.“Israel is not out of this mechanism, because the US is in this mechanism. We are so close and coordinated that a direct channel between the US and Iran on Lebanon would only benefit Israel,” a senior US official told Axios.Not everyone in Washington is convinced. Senator Lindsey Graham, one of Netanyahu’s closest allies in Congress, criticized the initiative.“The disengagement mechanism envisioned by the Trump administration in Lebanon does not include Israel, and in my view that is a major misstep,” Graham told Axios.On Monday, Netanyahu issued a joint statement with Defense Minister Israel Katz and Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff General Eyal Zamir, declaring that the military “will continue to act decisively to neutralize threats to our troops and civilians, destroy terrorist infrastructure, and maintain the security zone in southern Lebanon.”In particular, the statement stopped short of saying that Israel maintained full freedom of action inside Lebanon.Asked about Netanyahu’s concerns, Trump responded: “I’m a problem solver, I solve problems very fast – including Bibi.”Another round of direct Israel-Lebanon talks is expected to take place at the US State Department, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio brokering the deal. Discussions focused on a possible phased Israeli withdrawal from parts of southern Lebanon in exchange for the deployment of the Lebanese Army to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding its presence.Graham argued that the new US-Iran understanding could complicate those efforts.“It is extremely unrealistic to expect anyone to reach an agreement between Israel and Lebanon at the same time that Iran is seeking to include Lebanon in its negotiations with the United States,” he said.Senior US officials disagreed, telling Axios that Rubio’s team was fully aware of the new arrangement and arguing that it could reduce tensions and create better conditions for diplomacy.“This creates a huge opportunity for Israel-Lebanon talks to succeed. If Israel and Lebanon work together and reach an agreement, they will have a stronger hand in disarming Hezbollah,” the official said.However, for now, the prospect of a comprehensive Israel-Lebanon agreement that would result in the disarmament of Hezbollah seems remote, underscoring the challenge facing diplomats even if the ceasefire largely holds.

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