Ahead of the market: 10 things that will determine stock market action on Monday

Indian frontline indices ended their two-session rally amid sharp cuts as the failure of Iran-US talks dampened market sentiment. Elevated energy prices and a faltering rupee have added to the woes for domestic investors. Amid high volatility, markets were mainly dragged by financials, auto and consumer stocks. The Nifty settled down 486.85 points, or 2.09%, at 22,819.60, while the BSE Sensex shed 1,690.23 points, or 2.25%, at 73,583.22.

Meanwhile, volatility gauge India VIX ended at 26.80, up 8.77% from last close.

Here’s how analysts read the pulse of the market:

Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities, said the index is trading below the 21-hour EMA, indicating a short-term bearish period. Additionally, the RSI has entered a bearish crossover, reinforcing the negative bias. “Given the prevailing market uncertainty, a sell-bullish approach may be appropriate in the near term. Technically, any rebound towards 23,500 could face selling pressure, as this level is likely to act as immediate resistance. On the downside, a break below 22,800 could lead to further weakness in the market,” Day said.

US markets

US markets traded lower on Friday amid continued uncertainty over ceasefire talks in the Iran-Israel conflict. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 792.67 points, or 1.72%, to 45,167.44. The S&P 500 fell 113.35 points, or 1.75%, to 6,363.75, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite shed 459.72 points, or 2.15%, to 20,948.36.

European markets

Europe’s main indices closed with significant losses. The UK’s FTSE 100, Germany’s DAX, Stoxx 600, Spain’s IBEX 35 and France’s CAC 40 were flat between 0.05% and 1.38% around this time.

Tech View

Ajit Mishra, senior vice president of research at Religare Broking, said the lack of clarity around geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran has left investor sentiment subdued, pushing crude oil prices above $100 once again.

“On the technical front, Nifty continues to hover near the crucial support level, indicating continued pressure despite entering oversold territory. Immediate support is placed around 22,500, and a critical break below this level could trigger further downside towards 22,000. On the upside, a strong assumption of 23,000 is likely to follow. 23,500 zone in case of any recovery. Close,” Mishra said.

He expects volatility to remain elevated on Monday and advised participants to maintain a cautious approach, avoid aggressive positions and focus on disciplined risk management while adopting a selective, stock-specific trading strategy.

Most active stocks in terms of turnover

Bharti Airtel (Rs 663 crore), Hindalco Industries (Rs 519 crore), HDFC Bank (Rs 468 crore), InterGlobe Aviation or commonly known as IndiGo (Rs 372 crore), Gujarat Alkalis and Chemicals (Rs 242 crore), Tata Motors (TMCV, Rs 2R2 crore) VanRPSG and Rs 2 crore. It was one of the most active stocks on the BSE in terms of value. High activity across counters in terms of value can help identify counters with the highest trading turnover for the day.

Most active stocks in terms of volume

Vodafone Idea (traded shares: 3.43 crore), SpiceJet (traded shares: 3.76 crore), Yes Bank (traded shares: 1.19 crore), Suzlon Energy (traded shares: 1.03 crore), Reliance Power (traded shares: 84.11 lakh), Ola 7 lakh Power and Power shares: 84.11 lakh (traded shares: 84.11 lakh). 71.48 lakh) and was one of the most actively traded stocks in terms of volume on BSE.

Stocks show interest in buying

HEG, Graphite India, ACME Solar, Hilton Metal Forging, RPSG Ventures, Supreme Petrochem and Likhitha Infrastructure were among the stocks that saw strong buying interest from market participants.

52 week high

Today, 67 stocks touched their 52-week highs while 906 stocks slipped to their 52-week lows. Stocks that hit 52-week highs include Apt Packaging, Aurobindo Pharma, Gautam Exim, HRS Aluglaze, Prime Focus, Surbhi Industries and Titan Biotech.

Selling pressure is seen in stocks

Largecap names include Shriram Finance, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles) and Reliance Industries (RIL). Other stocks like Punjab & Sindh Bank (PSB), Naga Dhunseri Group, Shemaru Entertainment, Deepak Builders & Engineers India, Uma Exports, Bombay Super Hybrid Seeds and Ai Finance saw significant selling pressure.

The sentiment meter favors the bears

Heavyweights such as Reliance Industries (RIL), HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank dragged the markets the most, as the overall market breadth remained negative. Of the 4,501 stocks traded on BSE on Monday, March 30, 761 stocks advanced, 3,615 declined, while 125 remained unchanged.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, opinions and views given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)