The United Nations says the Earth’s population will peak at about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, before declining slightly to a level much lower than predicted a decade ago.
The report “World Population Prospects 2024” released on Thursday said the current population of 8.2 billion will peak in the next 60 years, and fall to 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
It states that the world population in the year 2100 will be six percent smaller than projected in June 2013, or 700 million fewer people.
“The demographic landscape has changed significantly in recent years,” said Li Junhua, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.
He said the unprecedented population growth resulted from a number of factors, including low fertility rates in some of the world’s largest countries, particularly China.
This lowest maximum will also come earlier than previously calculated, he said, and that’s a promising sign as the world battles global warming: Fewer humans will mean less overall consumption, which will mean less pressure on the environment.
“However, slowing population growth will not eliminate the need to reduce the average impact caused by each individual’s activities,” the official said.
The report said more than a quarter of the world’s population, or 28 per cent, now lives in 63 countries or regions where the population has already peaked, including China, Russia, Japan and Germany.
Over the next 30 years, nearly 50 other countries, including Brazil, Iran and Türkiye, would join that group.
However, according to the United Nations, population growth will continue in more than 120 countries even after 2054. These include India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States.
The increase in global life expectancy – which was interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic – has resumed, with life expectancy averaging 73.3 years in 2024. In 2054, it will average 77.4 years.
So the world’s population will continue to see more gray hair. The study estimates that by the end of the 2070s, there will be 2.2 billion people aged 65 or older, more than those under 18.
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