The ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad following the entry of rebel forces into Damascus this weekend broke Iran’s network of influence in the Middle East, but Israel, the United States and Arab powers now fear a mosaic of instability and The risk of extremism has to be dealt with. Of the forces that take its place.
Prominent among the rebel forces that ended the 50-year brutal dynastic rule of Assad and his father was Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Muslim group formerly affiliated with al Qaeda that has been designated a terrorist organization by the US and UN. Has been designated as. ,
Three diplomats and three analysts told Reuters that Western and Arab countries fear the HTS-led rebel coalition may seek to replace Assad’s regime with a radical Islamist government or a government less capable or willing to prevent a resurgence of radical forces. Is.
“There is a deep fear inside and outside the region about the power vacuum that could lead to the sudden fall of Assad,” said Abdelaziz al-Segar, director of the Gulf Research Center, a think tank focused on the Middle East. He cited the civil wars that followed the overthrow of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in 2003 and Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.
A senior Western diplomat in the region, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that – with rebel forces fragmented – there were no plans to govern Syria, a complex nation divided into different sects and ethnic groups. Is divided, each with its own separate group. Regional power base.
The senior diplomat expressed fears that chaos in Syria could allow the rise of extremist groups such as Islamic State (IS), which swept across large parts of Syria and Iraq in 2014 and created an Islamic state before being driven out by the US-led coalition. Established the Caliphate. Till 2019.
US President Joe Biden on Sunday welcomed Assad’s overthrow and said he “must be held accountable” for his autocratic rule but warned that his departure was a moment of “risk and uncertainty”. The US military carried out dozens of strikes inside Syria on Sunday to prevent IS from strengthening again.
Only two weeks after the rebel offensive began, the speed of Assad’s ouster surprised many in the White House. A senior US official said Washington is now exploring ways to communicate with all rebel groups, not just HTS.
So far, Washington has mostly given its support to Syrian Kurdish groups, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which control areas in north-east Syria. However, these groups are in conflict with one of the main victorious rebel factions, the Syrian National Army (SNA), which is backed by regional power broker, Turkey, which opposes Kurdish influence.
Assad’s allies, Tehran and Moscow, which propped up his rule for 13 years with military support, people and airpower, are also facing the far-reaching effects of his rapid collapse.
Moscow – which has granted asylum to Assad and his family – has two major military bases in Syria, its main footprint in the Middle East. Its naval base at Tartus on the Mediterranean Sea has been a staging post for moving military contractors in and out of Africa.
For Tehran, its alliance with Assad – a member of the minority Alawite sect, a branch of Shiite Islam – was a cornerstone of its powerbase in a predominantly Sunni region wary of Shiite Iran.
Assad’s departure severed a key axis of influence, destroying Tehran’s ability to project power and maintain its network of militia groups across the Middle East, particularly to its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that it had opened a direct line of communication with the rebels in an effort to “stop the hostile trajectory.”
Israel’s year-long military campaign has already weakened the military power of Hezbollah and the Palestinian group Hamas in Gaza.
Assad offered Iran an important channel for arms shipments to rebuild Hezbollah. Jonathan Panikoff, the former US deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East, said his removal would make it more difficult for Hezbollah to regroup, increasing the chances that the ceasefire agreed with Israel last month would stick.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described Assad’s ouster from power as a “historic day” following Israel’s strikes against Iran and Hezbollah. He said he had ordered Israeli forces to seize areas of the buffer zone along the border to ensure Israeli security.
Israeli forces carried out airstrikes on Monday to prevent suspected chemical weapons and missile sites from falling into the hands of hostile elements, the foreign minister said.
Carmit Valensi, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), a think tank for Israeli security policy, said that – despite the risk of prolonged chaos and violence in Syria – there could be benefits to Assad’s fall. . Israel.
He said, “Despite concerns over the rise of extremist elements near the border and the lack of a clear authority in charge, the military capabilities of the rebels, in their various forms, are not comparable to those of Iran and its proxies.”
Call for new constitution, elections
Marwan al-Muasher, vice president of studies at the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Assad’s exit could give Syrians an opportunity to establish an inclusive political regime through an orderly transition, free from a power vacuum. What remains is allowing extremist groups. Gain dominance.
Hadi al-Bahra, head of Syria’s main opposition abroad, told Reuters on the sidelines of the Doha Forum on Sunday that there should be an 18-month transition period to establish “a secure, neutral and peaceful environment” for free elections in Syria. .
Al-Bahra, chairman of the Syrian National Coalition, said Syria should draft a constitution within six months, on which the first election would be a referendum. He said the opposition has asked state employees to come to work till the change of power and has assured them that they will not be harmed.
But Syria’s political opposition has little influence on the ground in Damascus, where armed groups hold sway, and many Syria watchers remain skeptical.
HTS’s leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, addressed a huge crowd at the medieval Umayyad Mosque in central Damascus on Sunday, promising to start a new chapter for the region and saying Syria would become “a beacon for the Islamic nation.” Will go.
However, there are questions about whether Golani’s strict Islamic ideology will be accepted across Syria, a country where a moderate and moderate form of Islam is prevalent and has a mixed Christian, Alawite, Druze and Kurdish population.
Both Western and Middle Eastern officials expressed concerns about the unity of Syria, with key areas including the borders with Iraq and Turkey under the control of different sectarian and ethnic groups: these divisions, which stemmed from the bloody 2011 uprising, There exists a growing threat to national stability.
Analysts and diplomats who spoke to Reuters warned of the danger of a free-for-all conflict – similar to the overthrow of Gaddafi in Libya or Saddam in Iraq – in which armed groups of different Islamic, ethnic and ideological shades fight. To dominate the area. He said such a failed state in Syria would have a major impact on neighbors Lebanon, Türkiye, Iraq and Jordan.
Rivalry between rebels
The Syrian opposition includes a broad spectrum from moderate groups such as the SNA to jihadist elements within HTS, each with their own vision for Syria’s future, ranging from secular democracy to Islamic rule.
Al-Sager said, “Each of these rebel groups is competing for dominance; each person wants to be in charge. Each person thinks they can be Bashar al-Assad, and each person is trying to fund their group.” “owes allegiance to a foreign party.” “Unless there is an effort by the United Nations and some regional countries with influence to unify them, they will continue to struggle.”
Turkish-backed forces dominate the north, while US-aligned Kurdish groups, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), hold sway in northeastern Syria.
In a sign of tensions between the groups, the Turkish-backed SNA seized several areas, including the town of Tel Refait, from US-backed Kurdish forces at the start of the latest offensive. On Sunday, a Turkish security source said rebels entered the northern city of Manbij after pushing back the Kurds again.
Nevertheless, some analysts say an orderly transition is possible, arguing that well-established government institutions in Damascus are capable of carrying out duties.
They also point to the rebels’ experience in governing areas across Syria, which they have managed in some cases for more than a decade. The HTS-led rebel coalition offered amnesty to members of the security forces after capturing Syria’s second-largest city Aleppo late last month and promised the large minority population a return to their way of life. Will preserve.
But Hassan Hassan, a Washington-based expert on Islamic groups in the Middle East, said concerns remain among these minority groups now that rebels have captured Damascus.
“There is uncertainty about what will happen next, particularly regarding religious implications and how (Islamic) law may evolve,” he said.
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
