Donald Trump’s re-election as US President last week comes at a time of extreme instability in the Middle East.
The newly elected President has promised to end all wars. In his usual impulsive and unpredictable manner, he has promised to resolve the Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office and to help Israel quickly end the Gaza and Lebanon operations.
Yet the Middle East is a complex place. Trump will have great difficulty balancing his strong support for Israel and his other ambitions in the region, especially given the changing dynamics between Iran and its rival, Saudi Arabia.
What they can expect when Trump takes office in a few months.
Talks between Israel and Hamas fail
The US election was overshadowed by Qatar’s announcement that it has stopped its role as a ceasefire broker between Israel and Hamas.
The small, oil-rich emirate has worked hard over the past year to try to reach an agreement to end the war. In the process, it made good use of its close relations with the United States, which has the largest Middle East military base in Qatar, and with Hamas, whose political leadership and offices are based in Doha. Qatar believed this would help it gain the confidence of the warring parties.
However, its efforts led to nothing more than a brief ceasefire last year, which resulted in the release of more than 100 Israeli hostages in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners.
Lebanon ceasefire: Israel and Lebanon are reportedly “in the advanced stages” of reaching a ceasefire agreement. The deal appears to attempt to more successfully implement UNSCR 1701, which prohibits Lebanese Hezbollah military activity in southern Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/Qq9Gb20icw
– Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) 30 October 2024
There are several reasons for this.
The first thing is that both the sides are not able to move beyond some major sticking points. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged to completely destroy Hamas, rejecting the possibility of a temporary ceasefire. Hamas is demanding a complete cessation of fighting and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
Meanwhile, Washington has failed to play a meaningful role in the talks. While repeatedly stressing its desire for a ceasefire, the Biden administration has not put any concrete pressure on Israel at any point beyond diplomatic rhetoric.
He has also refused to cut military aid to Israel. Instead, it approved US$20 billion (A$30 billion) of arms sales to Israel in August. This means that Netanyahu has no compelling reason to deviate from his mission.
Ceasefire possible in Lebanon
As prospects for a Gaza ceasefire fade, hopes are rising for a Lebanon ceasefire.
Washington is reportedly engaged in intensive diplomatic efforts to bring Israel and Hezbollah to a common ground to end the fighting there.
Israel wants Hezbollah to be disarmed and pushed back at least beyond the Litani River in southern Lebanon – about 30 km north of the Israeli border – and a security zone established between the two. Israel wants to retain the right to attack Hezbollah if necessary, which Lebanese authorities may deny.
Israel has significantly weakened Hezbollah in its bombing and ground invasion of southern Lebanon, at the cost of massive civilian casualties.
However, just as Israel has not been able to eliminate Hamas, it has not yet succeeded in crippling Hezbollah to such an extent that it would be forced to accept a ceasefire on Israel’s terms. The militant group has sufficient political and military skills to remain resilient.
changing regional dynamics
Now, Trump enters the scene again.
His election victory has consoled Netanyahu’s government to such an extent that his Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has asked relevant authorities to prepare for the formal annexation of Jewish settlements in the West Bank.
Trump has long been a committed supporter of Israel. During his first presidential term he recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and ordered the US Embassy to be moved there. They also recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which Israel had seized from Syria in 1967.
He described Iran as the real villain in the region and withdrew the US from the multilateral Iran nuclear deal. He also instigated the Abraham Accords, in which several Arab states normalized relations with Israel.
However, the Gaza and Lebanon wars, as well as direct military exchanges between Israel and Iran in the past year, have changed the regional makeup.
Trump has expressed unwavering support for Israel against Hamas and Hezbollah, and is likely to resume his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. This could include imposing tough sanctions on Tehran and blocking its oil exports, as well as trying to isolate it internationally.
President-elect Donald Trump plans to drastically increase sanctions on Iran and slash its oil sales, according to people briefed on his initial plans.
– Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) 9 November 2024
Meanwhile, as a transactional leader, Trump also wants to strengthen America’s lucrative economic and trade ties with Arab governments in the region.
However, these countries have been shaken by the scale of Israel’s Gaza and Lebanon operations. Their populations are seething with frustration at the inability of their leaders to counter Israel’s actions. Nowhere is this more evident than in Jordan.
As a result, Saudi Arabia – America’s richest and most consequential Arab ally in the region – has recently taken the lead in expressing strong opposition to Israel. Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has also called for an independent Palestinian state as a condition for normalizing relations with Israel.
Additionally, Riyadh has been strengthening its rapprochement with its arch-rival Iran that has been ongoing for more than a year. The defense ministers of the two countries met after a joint military exercise of their navies last weekend.
Additionally, Bin Salman has called a meeting of Arab and Muslim leaders in Riyadh to build a consensus on how to deal with Israel and the incoming Trump administration.
Gulf countries wary of Trump’s return of ‘maximum pressure’ against Iran
– Financial Times (@FT) 12 November 2024
Where is all this going?
Trump will need to find a balance between his commitment to Israel and maintaining America’s close ties with its traditional Arab allies. This would be critical to ending Middle East wars and reprimanding Iran.
Tehran is no longer as sensitive to Trump’s poison as it might have been before. It is more powerful militarily and has stronger strategic ties with Russia, China and North Korea, as well as better relations with regional Arab states.
Given the absence of a Gaza ceasefire, little hope for a halt to the Lebanon conflict, Netanyahu’s intransigence and Trump’s “Israel first” policy, the Middle East is likely to remain unstable.
In a highly polarized and unpredictable world, this could prove to be as much of a headache for Trump as it is for Joe Biden.
,Author: Amin Saikal, Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, Australian National University)
,disclosure statement: Amin Saikal does not work for, consult to, own shares in, or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations beyond his academic appointment. Not disclosed.)
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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