When Chinese President Xi Jinping met with US President Donald Trump in Beijing on Thursday, one phrase unexpectedly dominated the strategic discussion between the world’s two biggest powers: the “Thucydides trap”.In his opening remarks, Xi said, “Can China and the United States overcome the so-called Thucydides trap and achieve a new normalization of relations between major powers; may we join hands to address global challenges and bring greater stability to the world; may we advance the well-being of our two peoples and the future destiny of humanity, and jointly create a better future for bilateral relations.” Opening the bilateral meeting, Xi described the future of China-US relations as one of the defining questions of the current era.The term reflects a deeper concern shaping modern geopolitics – whether the growing rivalry between the United States and China can remain competitive without escalating into direct conflict.On one level, this phrase sounds academic. But in fact, it is at the center of the current global power struggle that includes trade wars, semiconductor sanctions, military tensions in the Indo-Pacific, and a race for technological dominance.
The principle behind the phrase
The “Thucydides trap” was popularized by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison, who took inspiration from the writings of the ancient Greek historian Thucydides.Thucydides analyzed the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta about 2,500 years ago and concluded that it was Athens’ rise and the fear it created in Sparta that made war inevitable.Allison later adapted this idea to modern geopolitics. He argued that when a rising power threatens to displace an established dominant power, structural tensions emerge that make conflict more likely – even if neither side actively seeks war.
He used this framework to examine the evolving relationship between the United States and China.
Why does theory matter now?
China’s rapid rise over the past three decades has fundamentally changed the global balance of power. From manufacturing and trade to artificial intelligence, naval expansion and semiconductor technology, Beijing has long been challenging areas dominated by Washington.What started as economic competition has gradually transformed into strategic rivalry.Tensions are now visible over tariffs, export controls, cyber security, Taiwan, supply chains and the military situation in the Western Pacific.Also read: War or peace: US, China trapped in Thucydides’ trap – can they find a way out?Relations have become even more strained under Trump’s presidency, with Washington intensifying technology restrictions and pursuing aggressive trade measures against Beijing.Analysts say this broader conflict closely resembles the structural competition described by the “Thucydides Trap” theory.
Why did Xi raise this with Trump?
Xi has used the phrase several times over the past decade, including in discussions with former US President Joe Biden in 2024.His message remains consistent: conflict between China and the United States is not inevitable if the two countries find a way to co-exist through what Beijing calls “mutual respect” and “win-win cooperation.”By raising the issue directly with Trump, Xi appeared to escalate existing tensions beyond temporary disputes over tariffs or the trade deficit.For Beijing, the rivalry is being seen as a decisive test of whether a rising power and an established power can avoid repeating history’s patterns of confrontation.The phrase also reinforces China’s effort to position itself as a global counterpart to the US rather than a subordinate player in the international system.
Is US-China conflict inevitable?
not necessarily. Many American policymakers remain cautious about using this phrase because they fear it might give the impression that war is inevitable. Washington instead prefers terms such as “railways”, “strategic competition” and “risk management”.Critics of the theory also point out that today’s world is far more economically interconnected than in previous historical rivalries, Bloomberg wrote. Despite rising tensions, the US and China remain deeply linked through trade, finance and global supply chains.Nevertheless, the concept continues to resonate because it captures the central concern surrounding US-China relations: whether the world’s two largest powers can manage competition without falling into conflict.As trade battles intensify and technological rivalries deepen, the “Thucydides Trap” has evolved from a class theory into one of the decisive strategic debates shaping global politics today.