Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to work in line with Joe Biden’s foreign policy on key issues like Ukraine, China and Iran, but if she becomes the presidential candidate on the Democratic Party ticket and wins the US elections in November, she may take a tough stand with Israel over the Gaza war.
As the clear frontrunner for the nomination after Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed her on Sunday, Harris would bring to the job experience, personal relationships built with world leaders and an understanding of global affairs gained during her Senate tenure and as Biden’s second-in-command.
But running against Republican candidate Donald Trump will also leave her with a major weakness — a troubling situation at the U.S.-Mexico border that has dogged Biden and become a major campaign issue. Harris was tasked with addressing the root causes of high irregular migration at the start of her term, and Republicans have sought to make her the face of the problem.
Analysts say Harris’ presidency will be similar to a second Biden administration, based on a series of global priorities.
“She may be a more energetic player, but one thing you shouldn’t expect is any immediate major change in the substance of Biden’s foreign policy,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Democratic and Republican administrations.
For example, Harris has indicated that she will not deviate from Biden’s firm support for NATO and will continue to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia. This is in stark contrast to former President Trump’s pledge to fundamentally change US relations with the alliance and the doubts he raised about future arms supplies to Kiev.
Will you stay the course on the China issue?
Harris, a lawyer by profession and a former California attorney general, has struggled to establish herself during the first half of Biden’s term after she was initially given a large share of the immigration portfolio amid record crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border.
This was followed by an unsuccessful 2020 presidential campaign, which was widely regarded as a disappointment.
If she becomes the nominee, Democrats will hope Harris will be able to communicate their foreign policy goals more effectively.
In the second half of Biden’s presidency, Harris — the nation’s first Black and Asian American vice president — has strengthened her positions on issues ranging from China and Russia to Gaza and has become a go-to figure for many world leaders.
He delivered a tough speech at this year’s Munich Security Conference, criticizing Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and pledging America’s “steadfast” respect for NATO’s Article 5 requirement for mutual self-defense.
On China, Harris has long positioned herself in Washington’s bipartisan mainstream, particularly on the need for the US to counter China’s influence in Asia. Analysts say she will likely maintain Biden’s stance of confronting Beijing while seeking areas of cooperation.
Harris has made several trips aimed at boosting ties in the economically dynamic region, including a visit to Jakarta in September, where she replaced Biden at a summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). During the trip, Harris accused China of trying to coerce smaller neighbors with its territorial claims in the disputed South China Sea.
Biden also sent Harris on trips to strengthen alliances with Japan and South Korea, key allies that had reason to worry about Trump’s commitment to their security.
“She showed the region that she was excited to promote Biden’s focus on the Indo-Pacific,” said Murray Hibbert, a senior associate in the Southeast Asia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
He said that while she couldn’t match the “diplomatic abilities” Biden has developed over decades, “she still did a good job.”
However, like her boss, Harris is prone to the occasional verbal gaffe. On a visit to the demilitarised zone between South and North Korea in September 2022 to reaffirm Washington’s support for Seoul, she mistakenly touted the US’ “alliance with the Republic of North Korea”, a comment later corrected by aides.
If Harris becomes her party’s flagbearer and succeeds in overcoming Trump’s lead in pre-election opinion polls and winning the White House, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be high on her agenda, especially as the Gaza war still rages.
Though as vice president she has mostly echoed Biden in strongly supporting Israel’s right to self-defense after a deadly cross-border attack by Hamas on Oct. 7, she has at times gone a little further than the president in criticizing Israel’s military approach.
In March, he sharply criticised Israel for not doing enough to avert a “humanitarian catastrophe” during its ground offensive in the Palestinian territory. Later that month, he did not rule out “consequences” for Israel if it launched a full-scale offensive against refugee-filled Rafah in southern Gaza.
Such language, analysts say, has raised the prospect that Harris, as president, could employ at least stronger rhetoric on Israel than Biden.
While her 81-year-old boss has a long history with Israeli leaders and has even described himself as a “Zionist,” Harris, 59, has no personal connection to the country.
She maintains close ties with Democratic progressives, some of whom have pressed Biden to impose conditions on U.S. weapons shipments to Israel over concerns about heavy Palestinian civilian casualties in the Gaza conflict.
But analysts do not expect any major changes in US policy toward Israel, Washington’s closest ally in the Middle East.
Halie Soifer, who served as Harris’ national security adviser during the then-senator’s first two years in Congress from 2017 to 2018, said Harris’ support for Israel has been just as strong as Biden’s. “There’s really not much difference between the two,” she said.
Iran Nuclear Threat
Harris can also be expected to stand firmly against Israel’s regional arch-foe Iran, whose recent nuclear advances have drawn strong US condemnation.
Jonathan Panikoff, the US government’s former deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East, said the growing threat of “weaponization” of Iran’s nuclear program could be a major challenge for the Harris administration, especially if Tehran decides to test the new US leader.
After several failed attempts, Biden has shown little interest in returning to talks with Tehran to restart the 2015 international nuclear deal that Trump abandoned during his presidency.
Harris, as president, is unlikely to take any major steps unless there are serious signs that Iran is willing to make concessions.
Still, Panikoff, who works at the Washington-based Atlantic Council think tank, said: “There’s every reason to believe the next president will have to deal with Iran. That will be one of the biggest problems.”
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
