Rohit Srivastava, Founder, Strike Money Analytics and IndiaCharts highlighted key resistance levels and potential downside. “I would say the main resistance we’re looking at is 25,770, it’s close to that. That’s also where the market tumbled down from. We just tumbled below 25,750 a couple of days ago, so that becomes an important resistance that we have to go through if the market really wants to continue higher from here. Otherwise, with this level in mind, if we think that if the market continues to be weak today, then maybe it will go lower again.” A trip back to 25,300 or 25,000 in the coming days is therefore more favorable to the downside, which means more to the shorts than to the longs, and thus we are approaching this market.
Looking ahead to the next quarter, Srivastava advised investors to focus on value or momentum rather than broad sector bets. “The only thing you can do here is look for value or look for momentum. There is no other trade, which means if there are pockets of growth, you might find one stock out of 100, which means that if you pick stocks randomly, the odds against you are wide. So, it’s very difficult to say that, okay, this particular sector will do well.”
He noted that performance in banking and finance has also been uneven. “Even in banking and financials you only see SBI doing well, for example, and even in PSU banks now SBI is making new highs. You don’t see that in Canara, PNB and other PSU banks. So, it’s not really as broad-based as it used to be. This narrowness makes it very difficult to take sector calls.”
For those looking for value, Srivastava suggests exploring undervalued segments. “The value is probably in very outlying areas. For example, we look at sectors like sugar stocks, they’re very under-looked. They’re at or below book value, so that makes it a high-value sector, but it’s also a non-performing sector. But from a non-performer and a value standpoint it makes more sense that OK, you’re at least protected by value and buying something gets reduced.
He added that earnings growth for the Nifty 50 is modest, keeping the downside risk at bay. “Earnings growth is 7.5% for Nifty 50, which is very low. You are not even in double digits, while PE ratio for Nifty 50 is still at around 21 times. So it is relatively expensive compared to earnings. Either way we can say that earnings growth will increase significantly, and hence there is no risk of it going down significantly. Nifty is worried.”
On sectoral flows, Srivastava noted, “Among the major sectors, the financial sector is the only place where money has gone during 2025. But what I said is that it is starting to show a kind of narrowness, which is why you cannot take a clear call that you should continue to chase that sector. But yes, there is some financial strength in the pockets of NBSU banks in particular. Because the run-up has become very strong, especially in SBI stocks, where indicators like RSI is already at 80—not just on the daily, weekly and monthly charts, so I would think, and so I really need to look elsewhere, as I said, NBFCs are probably the only place where there is still left.
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