Analysts noted that the settlement, which includes payments of up to $2.25 billion to Roivant Sciences’ Genevant subsidiary and Arbutus Biopharma, will shift investor focus back to Moderna’s cancer vaccines under development.
This resolves all US and international legal proceedings accusing Moderna of unauthorized use of Genevant and Arbutus’ proprietary lipid nanoparticle technology in its Covid vaccine.
“The company is confident it is well funded by multiple late-stage oncology readouts expected in 2026 that represent new long-term growth drivers,” William Blair analyst Myles Minter said.
The company’s stock has also fallen nearly 90% from its 2021 high as demand for the Covid vaccine has waned in the post-pandemic years.
Moderna will pay $950 million upfront in July 2026, with an additional $1.3 billion contingent on the outcome of a separate legal appeal, while not paying royalties for technology in its future vaccines, seen as a significant win for the company.
The payments are not as significant as Wall Street had feared at more than $3 billion, said Citi’s Geoffrey Meacham.
However, if the payment becomes necessary, it could deplete the company’s cash reserves by $3.2 billion by 2026, Bernstein analyst Courtney Breen said. Moderna expects reserves to be between $4.5 billion and $5 billion this year.
Breen added this “narrowing of the tightrope” for Moderna, as the timing and scale of its other lawsuits against Pfizer and BioEntech are unknown, and its management has been known to be overly optimistic in the past.
In 2022, Moderna sued Pfizer and BioNTech for infringing patents related to mRNA technology. BioNTech sued Moderna in February, arguing that Moderna’s next-generation Covid-19 shot, MNEXSPIKE, infringed on one of its patents.
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