Hiring stalled in February, with US employers cutting 92,000 jobs and reducing profits in previous months, as oil prices soared to $90 a barrel and US gas prices jumped from $3 to $3.32 in a week. February jobs numbers eased due to health care worker strikes and ongoing federal government cuts, but the report still dampened hopes that US hiring is set to reach a stronger pace.
Combined, the dynamics — a war and rising commodity costs and weak hiring — have reignited concerns about “stagflation” for the Fed that policymakers thought they had put to rest.
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at its next meeting on March 17-18, but now that key supply chain risks are back on the table there could be a broader debate at that moment. Echoes of the pandemic era can be hard to hear, with no predictable timeline of how long oil flows might be disrupted or how high prices might go, as the difficulty of supply chain disruptions in an integrated global economy became clear.
Investors raised bets following the jobs report that the Fed will cut short-term borrowing costs in June, but the outcome may now depend on how policymakers decide to balance new risks to the economy that could now mean both higher prices and weaker growth.
In comments on Bloomberg Television, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he viewed the rise in oil prices as “like a one-time event” that did not require a Fed response, but also acknowledged uncertainties if the conflict continues and oil prices continue to rise. “If he’s … even a few weeks or a couple of months down the line, it’s not going to be a big factor down the road,” Waller said. “If it becomes more permanent … it will start bleeding into other parts of the economy.”
But policymakers are also likely to place renewed emphasis on the labor market after disappointing February figures.
Following the expected employment gains in January, Waller said he was prepared to advocate further rate cuts if the February jobs numbers were also strong.
“If the labor market continues to weaken … if we get bad numbers … the question is why are you just sitting on your hands” and not trying to boost the job market with rate cuts, Waller said.
With inflation one percent above target with new pressures on the horizon, the tension was already visible for some Fed officials.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on CNBC, “The labor market is expected to be stable — maybe it was too much.” “But we also have inflation above target and oil prices rising. How long that lasts, we don’t know, but both of our targets are now risks and we need to keep our eye on both.”
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