Investor expectations for Lilly hinge on whether the US drugmaker can continue to translate demand for its obesity and diabetes drugs into revenue while navigating lower prices, government deals and the rollout of its weight-loss pill.
It competes with Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk in the lucrative market for these treatments, known as GLP-1 agonists, which are expected to surpass $150 billion in revenue over the next decade.
“2026 is off to a strong start,” CEO David Ricks said in a statement, adding that he expects the recently launched oral obesity drug Foundayo to increase the number of people who can benefit from GLP-1.
Shares of the Indianapolis-based company rose about 4% in premarket trading.
Lilly expects to earn $35.50 to $37.00 per share on an adjusted basis this year, compared with its previous profit of $33.50 to $35 per share.
Analysts were expecting earnings of $34.55 per share for 2026, according to data compiled by LSEG.
For the first quarter, the US drugmaker reported adjusted profit of $8.55 per share, ahead of expectations of $6.66. This was primarily driven by an increase in volumes in its US and international markets, which helped offset lower actual prices, the company said.
Monjaro’s sales were $8.7 billion, beating expectations by $1 billion. Weight-loss treatment Zepbound posted sales of $4.2 billion in the quarter, beating estimates.
Investor attention on Foundeo
Lilly’s once oral weight loss drug, Foundaeo, was launched earlier this month and was prescribed 3,707 times in the US in the week ended April 17, close to analysts’ expectations of 8,000.
Investors are closely watching the rollout as a key test of whether Lilly can take market share from rival Novo, which has enjoyed a first-mover advantage in the oral weight-loss drug market.
Novo was first marketed in obesity with Vegovi, but Lilly’s share is growing after launching ZepBound in late 2023, with strong demand and clinical data supporting more weight loss than Vegovi.
Competition has moved beyond weekly injections to pills, which investors expect could expand the market by reaching patients reluctant to take injectable weight-loss drugs.
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