The deep transatlantic discord may leave a place for the ruling powers to reopen international criteria in its favor.
Dramatic Oval office shodown On February 28, between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodimier Zelancesi sent Shivar via the Transallantic alliance, breaking diplomatic efforts and economic talks in real -time.
Its collapse attracts attention to a major crisis for rules-based Liberal International Order.
Washington DC has traditionally deployed itself as the protector of democracy, free markets and security coalitions.
However, the Mercury approach of the Trump administration for foreign policy, combined with the divisive rhetoric around Ukraine, weakens this image.
The crack with Kiev not only affects the existence of Ukraine, but also indicates that the US international commitments may be subject to domestic political calculations.
Changes in US-Atlantic alliance commitments
Trump’s refusal to assure Ukraine, combined with his widespread doubt to NATO, suggests that the Washington Transatlantic can lead to a more practical approach to relationships.
This uncertainty has inspired European leaders to consider taking their defense initiative.
Pre -German ambassador Wolfgang IschingerHistory has shown the dangers of leaving Europe to handle Russia alone. Failure of Minsk process And Normandi talksTogether Europe’s ineffective handling of Bosnian warShowed the need for strong American leadership.
When the Washington disintegrates, Russia grows – as seen in the Annexation of Crimea and 2022 Ukraine invasion. However, Europe cannot remain an inactive player.
Ischinger Calls for a European Defense Association (EDU) for military cooperation, joint procurement and strategic decision making. At the same time, European policy makers are Uncomfortable With the possibility of a US-Russia reality. Trump’s rhetoric suggests He can seek to reduce stress with Moscow, possibly at the expense of Ukraine. It can alarm NATO colleagues in Eastern Europe, especially Poland and Baltic states, who see the American military appearance required to prevent Russian strategies.
Effect on US Global Standing
Diplomatic spectacle at the Oval Office has damaged American credibility as a reliable ally.
The public nature of Trump’s rebuke to Trump’s Zelenskyy is in combps with criticism of Vice President JD Vance’s war attempts. Fuel assumptions Washington can also leave major partners. European federal leader, European Union Foreign Policy Head Kaja kalasTo suggest that the US is no longer the leader of an independent world, it is calling Europe to step into its place.
The situation also increases concerns about the widespread strategic interests of the US.
The US benefits from a stable Europe that can retaliate Russian and Chinese effects. A weak transatlantic coalition can affect the anti-American influence, and reduce the effectiveness of international institutions with Western-Left.
If Washington fails to assure its colleagues, Europe may detect an alternative system rapidly, including more military coordination with the UK and a deep partnership with Indo-Pacific colleagues.
US-Ukraine Mineral Deal
President Trump’s push for American access to Ukraine’s vast mineral funds faces uncertainty after a stressful oval office conflict.
Ukraine has kept US $ 14.8 trillion in rare earth and important mineralsBut there is a lack of active extraction projects. Trump US $ 500 billion claims Rare is disputed on earth, as Global market Only US $ 12 billion is priced. moreover, 40 percent of Ukraine’s mineral reserves And 20 percent Hydrocarbon Russians are under control. with Dominance of China 90 percent of rare Earth processing, viability of the deal is not clear.
The unsuccessful US-Ukraine Mineral Agreement was aimed at prioritizing Washington for the vast rare Earth and important mineral reserves of Ukraine. These resources are essential for defense industries, electric vehicle production and advanced technology sectors.
However, amidst Trump’s allegations, the deal collapsed that Zelancesi was graced to the previous US support and his insistence on security assurance before finalizing any agreement.
The extensive implications of this deal are beyond Ukraine.
The US is dependent on China for rare earth processing, and was seen as a way to unbalance the dominance of Beijing from securing Ukrainian minerals.
However, Stald talks have left Washington without a clear option, forcing policy makers to rethink their supply chain strategy.
Meanwhile, the European nations, already deepening economic and military relations with Ukraine, may take steps to secure these resources. This change can accelerate Europe’s efforts to develop its independent supply chain, reducing dependence on both China and the United States.
Riyadh’s uncertain future of peace process
Finally, the fate of Riyadh peace talks organized by Saudi Arabia With extensive international participation, a purpose of detecting a possible settlement between Ukraine and Russia has become uncertain. Oval office engagement This process is quite complicated Claims of more support for Trump in “discovery of peace in Ukraine”.
As a condition for any peace agreement on the security guarantee, they are placed on obstacles with Trump as a condition for any peace agreement, which appear to be rapidly open to interact directly with Russia.
The Trump administration refuses to be committed to the continuous military assistance weakens Ukraine’s bargaining position and Increases concerns between European colleagues About American reliability as a security partner.
With confirming its support for Ukraine, the Riyadh peace initiative risks are being overshraded by a transatlantic fracture.
Amidst speculation that Trump can cut military aid to Ukraine, European leaders confirmed their supportThe UK Prime Minister Kir Stmper continued the US $ 4.5 billion loan to protect Ukraine.
French President Emmanuel Macron dismissed Trump’s claim that Zelancesi was gambling with the World War III, “the real danger was Putin. German Chancellor Olaf Sholaz and other European Union leaders echoed similar feelings, calling some more and more European responsibility in protecting Ukraine.
During this time, Moscow watched the US-Ukraine crack with satireLooking at it as an opportunity to pursue your terms for the ceasefire.
Europe’s reaction will be important for various dimensions of this crisis.
If the European Union leaders can create an integrated strategy on Ukraine, deepen defense cooperation, and establish maximum economic flexibility, they may be able to fill the leadership vacuum left by American uncertainty.
This change can give rise to a fragmented world system where Europe plays a more central role in global rule. However, if the transatlantic discord deepens, it can leave a place for the ruling forces to reopen the international norms in their favor.
KM Seethi is the Director, Inter University Center for Social Science Research and Extension (IUCSSR), Mahatma Gandhi University (MGU), Kerala, India. He also worked as a senior professor of international relations in MGU and Dean of Social Sciences.
(Originally published creative Commons By 360info,
(Except for the headline, the story has not been edited by NDTV employees and is published by a syndicated feed.)
