Global and US Shares gain by up to 3%a week, D Dollar Lare Advanced, Treasury Yields increased, and simplified the VIX index of US equity market instability. On the surface, a strong week for investors’ spirit and risk.
But it will only be half the story.
Statistics show that the US economy has shrinked in the first quarter – the statistical discrepancy, perhaps, but nevertheless, the first contraction, and the economy is halfway to the technical recession.
Some of them were clearly resisted by the Euro Zone clearly positive GDP statistics. On Friday, yields and stocks were further jumped, followed by a non-Farm Peroles report in April that the Trump administration’s global trade war was used by the US. The laborer is not physically felt in the market.
On the CORPORATE RABARATE MORT, dozens of leading global companies predicted or denied their first quarter earnings, such as uncertainty around the tariff. Yet the overall tone of these calls was positive this week, and investors have been sinking the day after consistently-exempt.
This week, the most significant development for the world markets came from Tokyo, where the interest rate was kept on the hold as expected by the Japanese bank but it reduced its growth point of view and reduced its inflation forecast. The yen was gazed, but still the week essentially made flat.
Therefore, some huge prices swing in personal share and wealth. US And beyond, there is less evidence that the uncertainty of trade motivates companies to relieve workers or to make jacks in prices. Not yet.
U.S. President Donald Trump is chasing his further fighting tariff threats, and Vashington Shington is closing on many bilateral trade deals. Tensions with China can also cool.
However, the risks of growth and markets are ahead, and the “Cliff-Age type adjustment” is possible in the coming months, RBC Bluebay warns the mark down of asset management.
He wrote on Friday, “There seems to be a similarity with the Rodrner cartoon, in which Ville E.
Stagflation looms, with customer spirit sliding and inflation expectations. For markets, it indicates book water instead of a plain boat.
I would love to hear from you, so please reach me with comments. You can also follow me on @Reutersjami and @reuterjamie.bsky.social.
This week’s key market move
* Britain’s FTSE 100 recorded a record of 15 consecutive consecutive days, the longest win after the index began in 1984.
On Friday Wall L Street rallies, the end of the week is about 3%. Dowo is the best run after December 2023, S&P’s longest win since November 2024.
* US bond yield increases by 7 basis points, thanks to a sharp rise on Friday after the April employment report.
* Oil decreases 8%, with Brent crude futures on Friday.
* Japan’s Nikki 225 U.S. Trade deals rise 3% on optimism and weak yen. The index increases seven consecutive days, which is the best run after August Gust-September, 2023.
* Gold slip 2.6% a week, its recent $ 3,500/z ts is easier than high.
The chart of the week
In his first tenure at Office Fiss, US President Donald Trump regularly took credit on social media for the boom on Wall Street. He has raised less voice around this time, and since its inauguration, the stocks down, this week, he posted: “This is Biden’s stock market, not Trump’s,” added that the latest slide has nothing to do with tariffs “.
April 30 marks the first 100 days of Trump’s second term, and the chart below shows where they are ranked in history. In the last two days, some of these losses have returned, and if the rebound continues, it will be Trump’s stock market.
Here are some of the best things I read this week:
1. America’s economic tails will override Trump and his tariff
2. The victory of Trump and Technolords
3. Smoot-Holly Business War
4. Trump Tariff exposes us weak curtains in services
.
What can move to markets on Monday?
* Australia Stralia’s reaction to Saturday’s general election
* Indonesia GDP (Q1)
* US SERVICE ISM and PMI (April)
* US 3 -year -old Treasury Note auction
The views expressed are of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters’ news, which, under trust principles, is committed to freedom from integrity, freedom and prejudice.
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