Whether COVID-19 was caused by a laboratory accident or spread by animals remains an enduring, hotly contested mystery.
Here are the key arguments fueling both sides of this debate, as AFP reflects on the impact of the virus five years after it reshaped the world.
lab leak case
Proponents of the lab-leak hypothesis highlight that the earliest known COVID-19 cases emerged in Wuhan, China – home of the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), a major center for coronavirus research – which Located at a distance of approximately 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers). Nearby bat populations are carrying similar SARS-like viruses.
“The Wuhan laboratories conducted research that put them on a trajectory to obtain a SARS virus with high pandemic potential,” Richard Ebright, a microbiologist and professor at Rutgers University, told AFP.
“A year before the outbreak, Wuhan laboratories proposed research to obtain a SARS virus that had even greater pandemic potential and characteristics that matched those of SARS CoV-2,” he said.
This research proposal involved the engineering of a structure called a “furin cleavage site”, which enhances viral growth and transmissibility but is absent in other SARS viruses.
Supporters of the lab-leak also cite concerns over biosafety standards at the Wuhan lab, where personnel reportedly wore only lab coats and gloves.
Ebright concluded, “There is sufficient evidence to conclude beyond a reasonable doubt that SARS-CoV-2 entered humans through a research-related event.”
case of natural spread
On the other hand, researchers like Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Organization at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada, argue that real-world “hard evidence” consistently points to the wholesale seafood market in Wuhan.
“We’re really looking at an evidence base that is hard evidence. This is evidence that can be measured,” he told AFP, which includes genomic, geographical and environmental sample data.
He argues that the case for laboratory origins, in contrast, is based on “what ifs” and speculation. This would include claims that proposals for research into ways to greatly increase virus transmissibility were publicly rejected but carried out in secret.
This perspective is supported by several studies, including one published in the prestigious journal Science, which analyzed the geographical patterns of Covid-19 cases during December 2019. The study showed that cases were tightly clustered around Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market.
Another study, which examined genomic data from early cases, concluded that the virus probably did not circulate widely in humans before November 2019.
Most recently, in September 2024, a study published in Cell identified raccoon dogs, palm civets, Amur hedgehogs, and bamboo rats on the market.
In particular, raccoon dogs, which are closely related to foxes, are known to carry and transmit viruses similar to SARS-CoV-2, suggesting that they may act as intermediaries between bats and humans. Can do.
For Rasmussen, the appeal of the lab-leak theory reflects a desire for direct answers. She argues that if the blame lies with misguided scientists or China, people will simply believe in the possibility of a solution.
where things stand right now
One thing is certain: The lab-leak theory, once dismissed as a conspiracy theory, has gained mainstream traction. For now, the debate remains unresolved – scientifically and politically.
Some US agencies, such as the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Energy, support the lab-leak theory, although with varying levels of confidence, while most elements of the intelligence community lean toward a natural origin.
Lab-leak proponents, such as Alina Chan, a molecular biologist at the Broad Institute and author of “Virals: The Search for the Origins of COVID-19,” continue to advocate for the complete declassification of intelligence data and an independent investigation into China. 2021 Beyond WHO investigation.
“There are many aspects of the pandemic that have damaged public trust in science and health institutions,” Chan told AFP. “The origin of the pandemic is one of these.”
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
