When political outsider Donald Trump defied polls and expectations to defeat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 US presidential election, he described the victory as “beautiful”.
Not everyone saw it that way – given that Democrat Clinton received nearly three million more votes nationally than her Republican opponent. Non-Americans were particularly surprised that the second-highest vote-getter would become president.
But Trump did what the American system requires: win enough individual states to overcome the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House, sometimes by razor-thin margins.
Now, on the eve of the 2024 election clash between Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, the rules of this arcane and, for some, outdated system are coming into focus again.
Why Electoral College?
The 538 members of the U.S. Electoral College gather in their respective state capitals to designate the winner after the quadrennial presidential election.
A presidential candidate must receive an absolute majority of “electors” – or 270 out of 538 – to win.
The system began with the U.S. Constitution in 1787, which established rules for indirect, single-stage presidential elections.
The country’s founders saw this system as a compromise between direct presidential election with universal suffrage and election by members of Congress—an approach that was rejected as insufficiently democratic.
Since many states lean predictably Republican or Democratic, presidential candidates tend to focus more on a handful of “swing” states that will likely swing the election – something like left-leaning California and right-leaning Texas. Almost ignoring the big states.
Over the years, hundreds of amendments have been proposed to Congress in attempts to modify or eliminate the Electoral College. Nobody succeeded.
Trump’s 2016 victory reignited the debate. And if the 2024 race is as thorny as most polls predict, the Electoral College will certainly be back in the spotlight.
Who are the 538 voters?
Most are local elected officials or party leaders, but their names do not appear on ballots.
Each state has the same number of electors as it has members in the U.S. House of Representatives (the number depends on the state’s population) and Senate (two in each state, regardless of size).
For example, California has 54 electors; Texas has 40; And less populated Alaska, Delaware, Vermont and Wyoming have only three each.
Despite having no voting members in Congress, the US capital Washington also gets three electors.
The Constitution leaves it up to the states to decide how their electors’ votes should be cast. In each state, except for two (Nebraska and Maine, which award some electors by congressional district), the candidate who wins the most votes is theoretically allocated all of that state’s electors.
controversial institution
In November 2016, Trump won 306 electoral votes, far more than the required 270.
The extraordinary situation of losing the popular vote but winning the White House was not unprecedented.
Five presidents have reached the presidency this way, the first being John Quincy Adams in 1824.
More recently, the 2000 election resulted in an epic tie in Florida between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore.
Gore won nearly 500,000 more votes nationwide, but when Florida – ultimately following the intervention of the US Supreme Court – went to Bush, it brought his Electoral College total to 271 and marked a major victory.
True vote or a mere formality?
Nothing in the Constitution obliges voters to vote one way or the other.
If some states are required to respect the popular vote and fail to do so, they are subject to a simple penalty. But in July 2020, the Supreme Court ruled that states can impose penalties on such “loyal voters”.
To date, faithless voters have never determined the outcome of a US election.
electoral college schedule
Voters will gather in their state capitals on December 17 and cast their votes for the President and Vice President. US law states that they “meet and cast their votes on the first Tuesday after the second Wednesday in December.”
On January 6, 2025, Congress will convene to certify the winner – a panic event this cycle saw four years after a mob of Trump supporters stormed the US Capitol attempting to block certification.
But there is a difference. Last time, it was Republican Vice President Mike Pence who, as president of the Senate, was responsible for overseeing the certification. Defying the immense pressure from Trump and the crowd, he certified Biden’s victory.
This time, the President of the Senate – normally the one overseeing pro forma certification – will be none other than today’s Vice President: Kamala Harris.
The new President is to be sworn in on January 20.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
