Syrians woke up to an uncertain future on Monday after rebels seized the capital Damascus, forcing President Bashar al-Assad to flee to Russia, ending 13 years of civil war and five decades of Baath rule. Done. The opposition Islamic coalition’s lightning advance against President Assad’s forces marked one of the biggest turning points for the Middle East in generations, eroding the bastion from which Iran and Russia had wielded influence across the Arab world.
The rebels making inroads into Syria are led by al-Qaeda’s former affiliate Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), as well as an umbrella group of the Turkish-backed Syrian militia called the Syrian National Army. However, the insurgency is deeply fragmented, with a confusing mosaic of local groups supporting multiple Islamist and nationalist ideologies, including several Kurdish groups and Turkish-backed militias.
A look at the main rebel groups in Syria
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
The most powerful group in Syria that led the rebel advance is the Islamist group HTS. The group emerged as the official al Qaeda affiliate in Syria under the name Nusra Front, which has carried out attacks in Damascus since the beginning of the uprising against Mr. Assad.
However, its leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, who had used the name Abu Mohammed al-Golani for years, first publicly walked out of the emerging Islamic State group, and then out of the global al Qaeda organization in 2016. The group underwent several name changes, eventually being rebranded as HTS, or Organization for the Liberation of the Levant, as it became the strongest group in the main rebel area around Idlib province in the northwest.
HTS and its leaders have been designated terrorists by the United States, Türkiye, and others. There have been serious human rights concerns in the area under its control, including executions of those accused of belonging to rival groups and accused of blasphemy and adultery. However, the group continued to fight alongside mainstream rebel groups and supported an administration in Idlib they called the Salvation Government.
Ahmed al-Sharaa, meanwhile, projected a more moderate image during the blitzkrieg that toppled Mr Assad, but some Syrians will probably remain fearful about his ultimate intentions.
Syrian National Army (SNA)
In 2016, Turkey sent troops to Syria to push Kurdish groups and Islamic State away from its borders. A major supporter of the rebels, it eventually formed some groups into the Syrian National Army, which captured a section of territory along the Syrian-Turkish border, backed by direct Turkish military power.
As HTS and allied groups advanced on Assad from the northwest last week, the SNA joined them and was fighting government forces and Kurdish-led forces in the northeast.
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
The Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG) took control of large areas of northeastern Syria in 2012 as government forces withdrew to fight rebels in the west. Turkey views the YPG as inseparable from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged an insurgency inside Turkey for decades and which the US considers a terrorist group.
As the Islamic State advanced into Syria in 2014, the YPG joined other groups, backed by the US, to stop them. They formed the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) coalition of Kurdish and Arab militias supported by the US and its allies.
The SDF now controls most of Syria east of the Euphrates, including the former Islamic State capital Raqqa and some of the country’s largest oil fields, as well as some areas west of the river.
Free Syrian Army (FSA)
The FSA is a broad coalition of decentralized Syrian opposition rebel groups founded in 2011 by Colonel Riyad al-Assad and six defectors from the Syrian Armed Forces. Initially established to represent nationwide resistance and protect peaceful protesters against Mr. Assad’s regime, the FSA has struggled to meet these goals. However, despite its subsequent decentralization, the FSA remains the cornerstone brand of Syria’s moderate opposition.
other rebel groups
The Syrian rebellion is fragmented, with ideological alliances such as the Free Syrian Army and the Islamic Front holding influence at different periods of the conflict. Over the years some more of these broke away or merged with other groups.
Their relative strength was also determined by whether they were located in areas held by Assad or outside his control.
In northwestern Idlib, which was the main rebel stronghold in Syria until last week’s surprise advance, multiple groups fought alongside HTS in a unified military operations command.
Other groups had become dominant in the south. A series of Assad victories in 2018 forced them to accept his rule, but without returning all their weapons or returning to full Damascus control. Last week they rose again and took control of southwestern Syria.
What is happening in Syria?
Following his ouster, Moscow granted asylum to Mr Assad and his family, Russian media reported and Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s ambassador to international organizations in Vienna, said on his Telegram channel on Sunday.
International governments welcomed the end of Mr Assad’s autocratic government, as they looked to take stock of a new-looking Middle East. US President Joe Biden said Syria is in a period of risk and uncertainty and it is the first time in years that neither Russia, Iran nor the Hezbollah terrorist organization have an influential role there.
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Monday that Tokyo is paying close attention to developments in Syria.
Meanwhile, the rebels face the monumental task of rebuilding and governing the country after a war that left hundreds of thousands dead, cities razed to the ground and the economy hollowed out by global sanctions. Syria will need billions of dollars in aid. “My brothers, after this great victory, a new history is being written throughout the region,” said Ahmed al-Shara, better known as HTS chief Abu Mohammed al-Golani.
Addressing a huge crowd at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus on Sunday, Golani said that with hard work Syria would become “a beacon for the Islamic nation.”
