The political landscape in Sri Lanka is set to change as its citizens elect a new president on Saturday. Sri Lanka’s 17 million voters will choose one of 39 candidates in the country’s first election since the 2022 popular uprising that ousted then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
This year’s election is dominated by the two major coalitions, the SJB (Samagi Jana Balawegaya) and the NPP (National People’s Power), as well as various smaller parties and independent candidates.
UNP (United National Party) President Ranil Wickremesinghe is contesting as an independent candidate. Wickremesinghe, popularly known as RW, has the support of several rebel legislators from former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s party, the SLPP (Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna). The SJB coalition includes opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, JVP (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna) leftist leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake – the NPP’s presidential candidate – and Mahinda’s son, Namal Rajapaksa, contesting as the SLPP candidate.
Surveys and experts suggest that Sri Lankan voters are prioritising issues such as the economy, education, health, law and security. Cases of corruption and wrongdoings among politicians that dominated the electoral narrative have moved to the background after the 2022 unrest. Since most governments in the past did not solve the corruption issue, people feel it is better to talk about development. They hope to elect a leader who can lift them out of dire poverty.
Sad past
In the last election held after the Easter bombings on April 21, 2019, Gotabaya Rajapaksa of the SLPP (Namal’s uncle) won a decisive victory and Sajith Premadasa came in second. However, three years later, the world saw Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa being ousted from power, facing a continuing economic decline. Gotabaya’s faulty economic and monetary policies along with the COVID-19 pandemic hurt tourism – a major part of the economy – resulting in an unsustainable debt level. In April 2022, Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt and sought assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Russia-Ukraine war further exacerbated the crisis with rising prices of food, medicine and fuel resulting in mass protests never seen before in the country’s history.
Sajith Premadasa, leader of Sri Lanka’s Samagi Jana Balawegaya Party, waves to supporters.
This rebellion was calledJanata Aragalaya‘ (Sinhala word). Then-Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned and was followed by his brother Gotabaya Rajapaksa stepping down from the presidency and fleeing. Former minister Ranil Wickremesinghe became prime minister. In July 2022, Ranil assumed the presidency through a parliamentary vote with the support of Rajapaksa’s party, the SLPP, which still has a majority in the legislature. Ranil Wickremesinghe adopted harsh austerity measures with the support of the IMF.
New leaders
Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s inept rule and his decision to leave the country have tarnished the image of the Rajapaksa family and the SLPP the most. In this election, most of the SLPP MPs are supporting either Ranil or Sajith. They say that Namal Rajapaksa is just a symbolic candidate to keep the SLPP alive.
Sajith’s SJB has the support of the Tamil and Muslim minorities, who constitute 11% and 9% of the population respectively.
Although the Tamil parties have fielded a common candidate, the largest party ITAK (Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi) has extended its support to Sajith Premadasa. In 2019 too, Tamils had voted for Sajith, but after the Easter bombings, there was an unprecedented consolidation of Sinhalese votes behind Gotabaya Rajapaksa, which helped him win the election.
National People’s Power (NPP) presidential candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayaka gestures during an election rally.
The political vacuum created by Rajapaksa’s ouster was filled by Anura Kumara Dissanayake and the JVP, who urged Sri Lankans to come forward for sweeping change. Once marginalised, the party has emerged as a credible, major political force.
As far as Ranil Wickremesinghe is concerned, most of his party UNP members are now with Sajith, although he also has the support of some SLPP legislators like state Defence Minister Premita Bandara Tennakoon. Ranil is counting on his handling of the economic crisis to win him votes.
Thushara Gooneratne, editor-in-chief of Mawarata News, says, “People want change this time. They don’t want to vote for the same party and old candidates. New voters, especially on social media, are in favour of Anura Dissanayake. However, Sajith has a lot of support at the grassroots level, especially in the rural areas.”
“Most people consider Sajith to be pro-poor, just like his father, former President R. Premadasa.”
India’s share
In recent times, anti-India sentiments have grown in the neighbourhood for various reasons. Be it Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka or Bangladesh, politicians have been successful in diverting people’s anger towards India.
For India, the pitiable condition of the Tamil population in the north and east of Sri Lanka has long been a matter of concern. Successive Sri Lankan governments have failed to implement the 13th Amendment, signed as part of the Indo-Sri Lanka Accord in 1987, which provides for the devolution of powers to local governments in the north and east. In fact, India raised the Sri Lankan Tamil issue at the 51st session of the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva in 2022. With the new government, India would want to push for the restoration of provincial councils, which would provide some degree of autonomy to Sri Lankan Tamils.
India has a stake in a stable and peaceful Sri Lanka. India wants to prevent China’s growing interference in the country due to its geostrategic position in the Indo-Pacific region. The 2017 lease of the Hambantota port to China for 99 years has fuelled the debt trap narrative, raising India’s concerns.
Anura Dissanayake’s party is often seen as close to India’s main geopolitical rival China. But for some time now, Dissanayake has gained a different kind of authority in Sri Lankan politics, which has led to him being recognised as an emerging political force even from India’s point of view. Due to this, New Delhi invited Dissanayake for talks with it in February.
Thushara says, “Whoever wins this time will hold talks with India. Sajith is pro-India. But Dissanayake, who was earlier considered anti-India, is also pro-India. India is important for the development and stability of Sri Lanka.”
India needs all the goodwill it can get to deal with growing complexities in the neighbourhood, rising regional conflicts and continuing changes in the global economic order. A friendly, stable neighbourhood is a good start.
