SpaceX shares have signaled more than 35% in shadow trading

Shadow markets suggest a pop of at least 35% for Elon Musk’s rocket, satellite and AI company, pricing in a blockbuster SpaceX stock debut.

Derivatives offered by online brokerage IG International showed a market value of $2.4 trillion in Singapore on Friday morning, representing a more than 35% increase from the $1.77 trillion share price and valuation at the initial public offering.

SpaceX-tied perpetual futures on the crypto venue, contracts that do not expire, were trading around $180, indicating a valuation of more than $2.3 trillion. Over $143 million of the instrument was traded in the last 24 hours and currently has over $208 million of open interest.

Forecast markets have also added to the bullish signs. Polymarket traders have placed 70% odds on SpaceX closing above the $2 trillion market cap on its first day of trading.

While these signals indicate a level of enthusiasm, they do not necessarily translate directly into stock price movements. Shadow markets are typically thinner and less transparent than public markets, so prices can swing quickly and be driven by a small group of traders, leverage or short-term speculation rather than by broader investor demand.

Still, the prices show just how intense investor appetite for assets at the intersection of AI and space infrastructure has become. A bumpy first-day debut by SpaceX bodes well for the IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic PBC, providing evidence to bankers that public markets can absorb trillion-dollar valuations that were unthinkable just a few years ago.

“Demand for IPOs has been good and there is also a lot of interest in pre-IPO trading,” said Fabian Yip, market analyst at IG. It was the most popular pre-IPO trade “we have done so far even though valuations have been stretched. If pre-IPO pricing sustains the momentum, it will set a precedent for the next mega-IPO,” she added.

In the short term, however, SpaceX got off to a strong start with the so-called Magnificent Seven cohort and Tesla Inc. can also draw money from, while picking up suppliers, colleagues and shareholders associated with Musk’s rocket and satellite company around the world.