The Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, is being predicted to suffer one of the biggest defeats in British election history, according to analysts. At least three recent British opinion polls have predicted a dire situation for Sunak and his party, with one pollster claiming “electoral extinction” in the July 4 elections.

Recent opinion polls indicate a significant drop in support, with estimates suggesting the Tories will win only 72 out of 650 seats in the upcoming general election.

Political experts say this could be the worst defeat in the history of the Conservative Party.

Rob Ford, professor of politics at the University of Manchester, claimed the ruling party’s support would drop below 30 per cent, saying Rishi Sunak’s prime ministerial approval rating was the worst ever.

“They’re ready to go below 30 per cent. They’ve never gone below that, and you see a very consistent pattern. Rishi Sunak’s prime minister approval rating is the worst of any prime minister. Voters saying the government is doing a bad job is the highest it’s ever been,” Ford told India Today TV.

After 14 years of Conservative rule, there is growing demand for change among voters, fuelled by Britain’s worst cost-of-living crisis.

Professor Anand Menon, director of UK in a Changing Europe, expressed similar concerns and said it is very difficult for a party to win elections if it has been in power for more than 14 years.

It’s very difficult to win an election if you’ve been in power for more than 14 years. People start thinking about change. Secondly, it’s very difficult to win an election when you’re going through a cost-of-living crisis. Then there are the problems created by the Conservatives themselves. The Conservatives saw a significant drop in support at the party gate, then the Liz Truss mini-budget. So, there are layers of problems,” Menon said.

Since the resignation of David Cameron following Brexit, the role of prime minister in the UK has changed several times, with Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak becoming prime ministers in quick succession.

This rapid change is in stark contrast to the previous 28 years, when there have been only three prime ministers: Margaret Thatcher, John Major and Tony Blair.

Experts argue that while Liz Truss, who was prime minister for just 45 days, did a lot of damage to the party, Rishi Sunak has done little to repair it.

Rob Ford said, “He (Sunak) got a very bad hand, particularly by Liz Truss, but also by Boris Johnson through the party gate. All of these things are out of his control, but he took this bad hand and played it very badly.”

“Sunak has not been able to find a way to turn things around. He has not been able to deliver on his key promises. He has not been able to convince voters, who are naturally on the conservative side, to stay with him. So, he started with a very bad legacy, but he has not been able to make it any better, which is not good leadership,” he said.

In Richmond, the UK’s wealthiest constituency, professionals express uncertainty about their votes. “It’s not about Rishi or anyone else, but both parties are not very clear about their agenda. They are talking about the NHS, the police force, immigration, but I hope they go deeper and clarify their plan. They are all doing high-level lip service,” said Pranam, an IT professional attending a friendly cricket match.

According to a Best for Britain survey published by The Times, Labour could get 456 seats. However, not all Labour supporters are satisfied. Lifelong Labour voter Liam said, “I’ve voted Labour all my life, but I won’t vote Labour this time,” expressing his disappointment with the party led by Sir Keir Starmer.

Sophie Stowers, researcher for the UK’s largest survey on ethnic minority vote in a changing Europe, said that although Rishi Sunak is viewed more positively among British Indians than any other ethnic group, most British Indians are still likely to vote Labour in the next election.

“Most British Indians are going to vote Labour in the next general election, although we are seeing a higher rate of willingness to vote Conservative among that group than any other ethnic minority group. At the moment, the Conservatives are so unpopular that it’s practically impossible,” Stowers said.

Rupesh Agrawal, an HR professional in Richmond, has a similar opinion. Although he is in favour of Rishi Sunak, he remains unsure about his vote. Richmond is a stronghold of the Liberal Democrats.

The latest opinion polls show Labour is set for a majority with 262 seats, which would surpass the landslide victory it won under Tony Blair in 1997. The Liberal Democrats are expected to get 56 seats, Reform seven and the Greens one, while the Conservatives will fall behind with just 72 seats.