Marine Le Pen’s right-wing National Rally (RN) party pulled ahead in the first round of France’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, according to exit polls, but the unpredictable final result will depend on horse-trading ahead of next week’s second round of voting.
According to exit polls by Ipsos, Ifop, OpinionWay and Ellabe, RN is seen getting around 34% of the vote.
It was ahead of leftist and centrist rivals, including President Emmanuel Macron’s Together alliance, whose bloc was seen winning 20.5%-23% of the vote. The hastily formed leftist alliance New Popular Front is projected to win about 29% of the vote, according to exit polls.
The high polling results, which were in line with pre-election surveys, offer little clarity on whether the anti-immigrant, eurosceptic RN will be able to form a government with the pro-EU Macron.
Political bargaining will now continue for a week before the second round of voting on July 7. The final result will depend on how parties decide to unite in each of France’s 577 constituencies for the second round. In the past, France’s center-right and center-left parties have come together to prevent the RN from coming to power, but this dynamic, called a “republican front” in France, is less likely than ever.
The French president’s decision this month to call early elections has plunged his country into political uncertainty, sent ripples through Europe and triggered a sell-off of French assets in financial markets.
Participation in Sunday’s vote was high, reflecting how France’s deepening political crisis has energized voters.
Mathieu Gaillard, research director at Ipsos France, said turnout was around 60% by 1500 GMT, compared with 39.42% two years ago – the highest comparable turnout figure since the 1986 legislative vote.
Long ostracized, the RN is now closer to power than ever. Le Pen has sought to dismantle a party known for racism and anti-Semitism, a strategy that has worked amid voter anger toward Macron, the high cost of living and growing concerns over immigration.
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