On Saturday, less than two weeks ago, some of the biggest anti -government protests in Turkey have been observed since the arrest of the Mayor of Istanbul, Istanbul, Istanbul’s Istanbul. Imamoglu’s Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel, who organized a Saturday performance in Istanbul, claimed that there were 2.2 million people in the crowd.
Most of the reports in the scene said that the number of protesters was at least hundreds of thousands. Demonstrations were banned, despite the restriction on transport services, and the real possibility of arrest.
All this started on the morning of 19 March. As Imamoglu was getting ready to go to work, he learned that he was detained. He quickly filed a video message for his supporters: “Hundreds of police are at my door. We are against heavy bullying, but I will not go back,” he announced in the defense message. “This unethical and tyrannical approach will undoubtedly reverse our people’s will and flexibility.”
Imamoglu was taken to a high-protection police station in Istanbul and was later transferred to the notorious Cylivary Jail of Turkey on the banks of the city after a formal arrest seen as allegations of corruption and terrorism trump-up.
The arrest gave rise to a wave of mass protests in Türkiye, creating the biggest threat to the 22 -year rule of President Recep Taip Erdogan. Turkey has not seen such a major protests since the 2013 Gaizi rebellion in Istanbul, resulting in a cruel action by his rule.
Why are Erdogan afraid?
Imamoglu was taken into custody before he was elected by his Republican People’s Party (CHP) as a 2028 presidential candidate. It was long seen that Tyyp Erdogan was seen as the main political rival to rape, Imamoglu was a pioneer in public opinion surveys before his custody.
On the eve of his arrest, Istanbul University declared Imamoglu’s degree disabled, disqualifying him to run for the presidency. Higher education is a requirement for the presidential candidates in Türkiye.
However, the presidential election is not in the country until 2028, and Erdogan is not eligible to run for the third term. So, why should he bother? The answer is that most analysts and political supervisors in Türkiye believe that Erdogan will run and replace the constitution to make himself eligible. He knows that the only person who can beat him in the ballot is Imamoglu.
Istanbul case
Imamoglu is politically surprising, can be populist as Erdogan, and has proved his electoral force by defeating Erdogan candidates three times in the country’s largest city and its economic engine.
The loss of Istanbul to Imamoglu in 2019 was especially derogatory for the President of Türkiye. The election was canceled and a fresh vote was ordered, but, such as Imamoglu was again selected with great margin, to rub salt in the presidential wounds.
For the third time in 2024, Imamoglu’s victory in the Istanbul mayorl election strengthened his position as a malignant politician and brought him closer to Erdogan’s hold in the Turkish office.
Traditionally, anyone who controls Istanbul also controls Turkey. Erdogan himself started his political career in the city and reached the mayor’s office before becoming a national leader.
This is also the reason behind mass protests. Most of the protesters are of Generation Z, who have grown only to see Erdogan as a national leader. They now see an option for him. The youth and other large numbers are getting out as their performance is no longer limited to registering his protest against Imamoglu’s arrest, but also to save Turkish democracy. They want to see the end of Erdogan’s fast autocratic rule, during which they have achieved huge influence on the country’s judiciary, police and army.
As he has done in the past, Erdogan is using all power at his disposal to try to suppress the protest. Train stations have been closed, the iconic Taksim Square of Istanbul has been closed, vehicles trying to reach protest sites are being stopped, and about 2,000 people have been arrested, including a dozen journalists and lawyers. Imamoglu’s lawyer, Mehmat Pehlivan, and CHP’s young face, 21 -year -old Berke Gazin, are among those arrested. A Swedish journalist has been sent to jail and BBC Correspondent Mark Lowon has been expelled. In particular, photographers have been particularly targeted to prevent the spread of images of protests in the country and abroad. Turkish Nobel Prize winner, Orahan Pamuk, who has been a resident of Istanbul for 50 years, has said: “I have not seen many so -called security measures on the streets in the last few days.”
However, Erdogan’s rift has not yet worked. The number of protesters has increased in the previous week, as showed by large performances on Saturday.
Is history repeating itself?
History seems to repeat itself. In 1998, while still the Mayor of Istanbul, Erdogan was arrested for inciting racial hatred and spent four months in jail. His arrest only made him more popular and brought him to the national stage. This helped him later become the Prime Minister and then the President of Türkiye.
Does the same luck wait for Imamoglu? No one can say certainly. But the step of Erdogan rule against him indicates that the imprisoned Istanbul mayor is seen as the biggest political threat to the President. A few days after Imamoglu’s arrest on 19 March, his CHP party organized a vote to nominate him for the presidency. About 15 million people made him nationwide to vote. This number was less than two million than his party’s total membership.
Erdogan and Imamoglu both come from the Black Sea region of Türkiye and moved to Istanbul with their parents and grew up in the city. While Imamoglu has been more popular among secularists, Erdogan is seen as a hero in the Anatolia region, the Asian part of Türkiye and in rural areas. He has used political Islam to expand his base. In fact, Erdogan was arrested in 1998 and was imprisoned, as he challenged the strict secular principles of the modern Turkish state, which was established by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, reciting a poem: “Mosques are our barracks, our helmets, minrites our beeonits and our bayonets,” Domestles, “Domestures,” Domestures, “Doomastles,” Domastles, “Domestures,” Domestles, “Domastles,” Domastles, “Domastles,” Domestures, “Domestures,” Domastles, “Domastles,” Domestures, “Domestures,” Doomastles, “Domastles,” Domastles, “Domastles,” Domastles, “Domastles,” Domastles, “Doomasts,” Domastles, “Domastles,” Domastles. ,
His party was banned, but Erdogan formed a new political group after his release. Once in power, he expanded his Islamist base. Erdogan has tried to portray himself as a democratic Islamic as a Prime Minister since 2003 and then directly since 2014. He lifted the ban on wearing headcharf. However, he has also asked Turkish people to have more children. As the father of four, he announced that “no Muslim family” should consider birth control or family planning. “We will multiply our descendants,” he said in May 2016. A year later, he appealed to people living in Europe to have at least five children. He also does not believe in equal rights for men and women. Many Turks are not comfortable with such ideas and the political Islam policy of Erdogan because they still believe in the secular principles of Ataturak.
Control of judiciary
Erdogan used the 2016 military coup to start a large -scale clampdown against his critics. He accused him of being associated with the Guleen movement, inspired by the teachings of Turkish Muslim scholar Fathullah Gulanne, which he accused of being behind the coup.
He dismissed 1,50,000 people from government posts and arrested 50,000 including journalists, lawyers, students and other critics. But the most worrying action for the Turks was perj in the judiciary. More than 4,300 judges were removed and 1,100 were arrested and replaced by Erdogan’s loyalists and inexperienced new ones. About 1,600 lawyers were prosecuted and about 500 were sentenced to long jail. After the 2017 constitution amendment, the way the judges appoint judges were also changed. The President now appoints four members of the committee who hire judges and fire. Seven members are appointed by Parliament, where Erdogan has a majority, and the remaining two are the ministers and have a deputation.
Can Imamoglu get a fair test?
For the reasons above, Imamoglu’s supporters are uncertain whether he can receive a fair test. In his statements since the arrest, he has refrained from criticizing the judiciary.
Most independent observers believe that allegations against them will not be in fair tests. But will Turkish judges function impartially and provide justice to Imamoglu? Or will they go with Erdogan’s wishes, who would like to disqualify their opponents from running to the presidency? There is hardly any international pressure on the Turkish President in the current geopolitical environment. US President Donald Trump is considered a fan. Turkish is a member of NATO, and the European Union needs Erdogan due to the Ukraine conflict. He also has good relations with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. The second great power, China, is not known to speak against repression.
Therefore, only domestic pressure can make any difference. The future of Turkish democracy relaxes on the shoulders of young protesters. Twelve years ago, during the Gaizi Park Mass protests, when he felt that he was about to make history, the Erdogan government brutally crushed the rebellion. This time, they are supported by the country’s main opposition party, which controls six of the seven largest cities in Türkiye. In Imamoglu, he has also found a charismatic leader. But Erdogan controls Parliament, judiciary, army, police and most Turkish media. No one can predict what he will do next.
(Naresh Kaushik is former Editor of Associated Press and BBC News and is located in London)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author