A look in recent history is always practical in the study of geopolitics and geopolitics. Let’s have an important year for 1990 on the global stage. At that time, I had just returned from Sri Lanka with the last elements of the Indian Peacekeeping Force (IPKF) and was leading to an army cantonment at an ‘peace’ place. However, when we took to Punjab, our plans quickly changed. We were creating an upper line of forces crossing the Sutlage River to combat Pakistan’s interaction-this exercise inaugurated Zarb-e-Momin and sponsorship of extremism and terror in Punjab. The Zarb-e-Momin was designed to send a military training, a message with a military training maneuver, sending a message and diverting our attention. Meanwhile, the conflict was also going on in Kashmir, setting up a platform for a broader geopolitical confrontation.
Story of al Qaeda
This was the end of the Cold War. Berlin’s wall bus fell, and Soviet was still coming back from Afghanistan. Punjab was in turmoil, attracting strategic attention in many directions. The Iran-Iraq war ended a few years ago. The Islamic jihadis from all over the world were emerging from the debris of Afghanistan in 1990. This detail then incorporates only a small portion of the world. It also does not touch Africa, which was also emerging from the shadow of Somalia, Mozambique, Namibia, Angola and beyond the old struggles.
Except everything else, I often ask myself: Where did Al Qaeda come from? The answer returned to Afghanistan’s Soviet invasion in 1979, which triggered a global call for jihad against the Soviet Union. The US, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan supported Afghan Mujahideen with money, weapons and training to counter the Soviet influence. Osama bin Laden, a rich Saudi, joined the war attempt, organized foreign fighters and logistic support. The network later evolved into Al Qaeda established in 1988.
When the Soviet Union was withdrawn in 1989, Bin Laden and other jihadis saw it as a victory for Islam on a superpower. As the Cold War ended in 1991, the US and its allies disintegrated from Afghanistan, causing a power vacuum. Many foreign jihadis, including bin Laden, believed that their next mission was to fight the western influence – especially America, which they saw as the next “occupied power”.
How Al Qaeda became a global jihadi network
After Iraq attacked Kuwait in 1990, bin Laden offered his Mujahideen to protect Saudi Arabia, but the Saudi government rejected him, inviting the US Army instead. This marked his formal break with the US and its colleagues, converting Al Qaeda into a global jihadi movement from the anti -Soviet group.
The rise of Al Qaeda was deeply tied to the conclusion of the Cold War. The Soviet-Afghan war provided military experiences, networks and ideology that promoted its composition. After defeating the Soviet Union, the US and its allies left Afghanistan, allowing extremism. Bin Laden and his followers redirected their jihad against the West, causing the global terrorist threats to us today.
From this, many follow lessons. First, whenever the world emerges from the period of acute activity and reduces its guard, it is often killed by unconventional disturbance. This occurred in 1989–90 with the introduction of terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir, as with the civil war wars in Africa between 1990 and 1995. Movements in Chechnya and Bosnia were also associated with the events of this period. Recently, the return of US and coalition soldiers from Iraq in 2011 eventually paved the way for the rise of DAESH.
Although ISIS suffered military defeats in Mosul and Baguj, it was only partially displaced, receiving asylum in the northern bedlands in Afghanistan. Al Qaeda maintained an appearance with Central Asian and Pakistani terrorist groups. Meanwhile, the Taliban remains recurrent and incredible.
The remains of ISIS also remain in the Kurdish-accepted areas along the Syrian-Turkish border, and the risk of its resurrection is real. If the northern Syria and Turkish border region remain unstable, ISIS may exploit these conditions to rebuild its network and launch new crimes. The combination of weak governance, regional infection, and existing ISIS sleepers cells makes it a running and serious threat.
So, where does this lead? In the first month of the tenure of the new US President, the world system is already facing serious disruption. As global attention has been designed for Ukraine, Gaza, Indo-Pacific, trade disputes and tariffs, seem to have developed small issues, often with spiral’s ability in major crises. Remember how ISIS emerged in June 2014?
We should consider long -term consequences of massive destruction in Gaza. An entire generation of Palestinian youth now lives without hope – a feeling that is spread beyond the youth from the youth. For those who have tolerated such harm and suffering, taking revenge and vengeance have become powerful feelings, and defects are often placed on the whole world. It makes fertile land for terrorist groups.
If you wonder how these groups maintain themselves – with resources, fighters and finance – we have repeatedly seen that these are no longer significant obstacles. Ideologies are abundant, and it is never difficult to build a reason (whether it is considered just or unjust) when there is a vertical driving force.
How will the current gaza upheaval appear
There is no formal or direct relationship between Palestinian groups and ISIS. The latter follows an extreme Salafi-Jahadi ideology and often criticizes the Palestinian groups including Hamas, to be very nationalist and has failed to embrace his vision of global jihad. However, under a desperate dialect for survival, Hamas can change its stance, potentially open the door for some levels of collaboration with ISIS.
Hizbullah, a Shia organization with direct loyalty for Iran, is a priority for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While Hizbullah and Hamas historically combined some fronts, Hamas’s ideology is not away from the fundamentalism of the ISIS-style, with its effects and objectives, potentially spreading to other parts of the Arabian world beyond Palestine. This is a matter of concern, especially for regional stability.
On 5 February 2025, Rawalkot, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK), Hamas representatives- Khalid Qadadoomi and Nazi Zaheer, were present during the Kashmir solidity day program. He received his remarkable attention from members of Lashkar-e-Tabiba (Late) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (Jame), who was participating in a program in Poke the first example of Hamas officials. Although it may not yet indicate a formal alliance, it indicates a growing attempt to establish a broad network under the scope of international terrorism – also known as global terrorism. Similar patterns as a revival may emerge in East and West Africa, where Al Shabab and Boko Haram maintain strongholds.
My point is simple: while the world’s focus is consumed by major geopolitical concerns-such as European security, the future of NATO, displacement of Palestinians, and US-Russia cooperation should be devoted to strategic minds focused on the resumed struggles again. These so -called “small wars” have the ability to reopen global security, which we can currently imagine, by ways to destabilize it.
,The author is a member of the National Disaster Management Authority, Chancellor of the Central University of Kashmir, and the former GOC of the 15 Corps in Srinagar.
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
