If you’re looking for an insight that helps explain what happened in the U.S. presidential election and why it happened, consider this observation from a major player in American politics: “What hurts people and what There’s a difference between what affects them.”
Donald Trump insults people like it’s a religion. His constant lying insults; His cruelty hurts; His racism hurts; His misogyny hurts; his open contempt for “losers”; His lack of repentance hurts; His pride hurts; His penchant for anarchy offends; His admiration for dictators hurts; His vow of retribution and revenge against the “enemies of the people” (anyone who has crossed him or might cross him) offends; His promise to begin “mass deportation” of “25 million” illegal immigrants on day one is outrageous; His pledge to overturn world trade by imposing 20% tariffs on all goods and 60% tariffs on Chinese goods is outrageous; “His promise to protect women, whether they like it or not, offends”; His commitment to climate change denial and pursuing a “drill, baby, drill” energy policy hurts; His commitment to ending Obamacare hurts. the list is endless.
This is Trump’s world…
Still, Trump is the first Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years, and the MAGA movement has given him unbridled power by securing both the Senate and the House. The US Supreme Court has already agreed with him 6-3 and effectively granted him virtual immunity from any presidential action. The project is a blueprint for delivering on its promise to crush the “deep state” (i.e., federal officials committed to the Constitution and the rule of law) and replace 50,000 federal employees with loyalists in 2025. The independence of the Federal Reserve and the Justice Department would be jeopardized. All this has become clear as daylight since Trump announced his return to power in December 2022.
But Trump won because he successfully positioned himself as an agent of change (‘Trump will fix it’), addressing issues that affect his core voter base – the 62% of Americans without a college degree. These voters, who generally show little interest in politics but are deeply focused on improving their material well-being and preserving their cultural values, were key to his success.
And what effect does it have on them? Some of the most significant issues include rising costs over the past four years: grocery prices rose 20%, rents rose 40%. There are also concerns about men’s self-image: girls outperforming boys in school and college, the #MeToo movement, and college-educated women seeing the greatest growth in income and status. Many then see this as the imposition of ‘wokism’: it is not only about accepting the full rights and recognition of the LGBTQ community, but also about giving children the right to change their gender before they reach adulthood. Is also.
fear of immigrants
In some cases, there are deeply held beliefs based on fear and misinformation. I know a Texas-based psychiatrist whose patient admitted that she was afraid to go out at night because of her fear of immigrants, even though she hired an immigrant – possibly an undocumented worker – as a housekeeper. Appoints. Another patient believes that Trump was sent by God and the opposition party was sent by Satan. None of the patients suffered from psychosis; According to the therapist, these are culturally accepted beliefs.
Finally, there are outright misperceptions – such as the belief that tariffs will not raise the price of domestic goods, or Trump’s first term in office, without any new wars, proving that he was ready to take action against Ukraine and Central Asia immediately after taking office. Can end past conflicts. There is also a belief that mass deportation of illegal immigrants will not harm industries that are heavily dependent on immigrant labor, such as the American meat industry. According to The Economist, nearly half of the labor on American farms is undocumented.
The same Texas-based psychiatrist couldn’t believe his eyes when he saw a giant billboard in rural Texas that read, “Born in New York, think like a Texan.” That’s the story Trump sold to voters. And in politics—especially electoral politics—perception is reality.
Is there really a tectonic shift?
Yet, despite what some view as impending doom for the Democratic Party, it is important to note that Trump’s victory in the popular vote was modest: 75.8 million votes (48.2%) against Kamala Harris’s 72.8 million votes (48.2%). 50.2%). , Almost all the votes have been counted. In 2016, Biden had taken a lead over Trump by 70 lakh votes. But to his credit – Trump won the popular vote by actively pursuing it, rallying supporters in New York and California, even though the Electoral College votes from those blue states were never his. The effort came in the final weeks of the campaign when conventional wisdom would suggest focusing on seven key swing states.
How true is the talk of a tectonic shift in the vote and the creation of a new Republican social coalition? It is true that the identity that attracted non-white votes to Trump was his working-class, non-college-educated identity. These voters believed that Trump would do a better job of bringing back lost jobs to Mexico, addressing their affordability crisis, preserving their conservative cultural values, and securing their legal immigrant status by deporting illegal immigrants.
None of this should be surprising. pre-election survey from the new York Times A striking similarity was found between Trump’s views and the views of Latino and black voters. Four in ten Hispanic voters and one in five black voters had a favorable impression of Trump. Most of them expressed sympathy for his “America First” foreign policy. Only 20% of Hispanic voters and 26% of black voters felt that economic conditions were good or excellent. The average weekly wage for full-time Black workers had increased rapidly during Trump’s presidency, but essentially stagnated under Biden.
However, in absolute numbers, the change in the non-white vote has not been as significant as is often portrayed, as columnist Thomas Edsall points out. NYT“Nearly six in ten Hispanics voted for Joe Biden; Five out of ten for Kamala Harris. Nine out of ten black voters chose Biden; Eight out of ten for Harris. More than four-fifths of Trump’s votes came from white voters.
Trump won because he has excellent political instincts and because the people know exactly what he wants. His views on trade and immigration had already taken shape years before he entered politics. “I believe very strongly in tariffs,” he told a journalist in 1989. “America is being betrayed.” In his 2000 book, The America We DeserveHe wrote that “Our current laxity toward illegal immigration shows carelessness and disregard for those who live here legally.”
divide between rich and poor
What is particularly troubling for the Democratic Party is that this election reinforced a post-2012 electoral reality: The less affluent are aligning with Trump, while the college-educated, coastal elites are aligning with the Democrats. . Since white Americans make up 67% of the population and 62% of Americans do not have a college degree, Democrats will need to look beyond traditional politicians to lead — those who twist and change their positions, always exercising caution. Counter attack.
Yet, as we all know, Trump may be his own worst enemy. He is completely transactional. For him, loyalty is always one-sided. Her insecurities prevent her from sharing the limelight with anyone else. His pride makes him vulnerable to manipulation. Not surprisingly, he’s not the best judge of character, and his loyalists continue to cycle through a revolving door.
Team Trump, 2.0
The quote at the beginning of this column is from Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway, who worked with Trump since 2013 and managed his 2016 campaign. She later joined the first Trump administration, but left in August 2020 amid a public feud with her teenage daughter, who lambasted her personally and politically and even threatened her with legal separation.
Conway is not the only person who was once on Trump’s side but is no longer there. Trump’s chief ideologue and speechwriter Steve Bannon is no longer involved. In his place is Stephen Miller, the architect of Trump’s radical immigration policies. Trump’s daughter Ivanka and son-in-law Jared Kushner have been replaced by Don Jr., who is now in charge of conducting “loyalty tests” for anyone interested in joining the administration. Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff John Kelly, who called him a “fascist”, has been replaced by Trump campaign manager Susie Wills. Wills is known for his discipline and focus on facilitating everything Trump does. The big question is how long will it last?
new York Times—which Trump dislikes and likes to read—has faced criticism for suggesting that Trump would be a “dysfunctional” president, given that the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution bans a third presidential term. Critics accused the newspaper of having sour grapes. However, inadvertently, the newspaper has highlighted Trump’s central dilemma: What legacy does he want to leave behind? He has capitalized on Washington’s deep divisions and distrust in American society to become the most influential figure in American politics over the past decade. Is he now turning to statesmanship and trying to unite the country? Or does he pander to his MAGA base and give free rein to their thirst for revenge?
control uncertainty
Initial signs are inauspicious. Trump’s nomination of the highly controversial Congressman Matt Gaetz, who is under investigation for ethics violations, as Attorney General is also of concern wall street journalThe newspaper warned, “He is the nominee for those who want the law to be used to take political revenge and that will not end well.”
Similarly, the case of fox news The appointment of host Pete Hegseth, who has been outspoken against the Pentagon’s “woke” policies regarding racial and transgender equality, and former Democratic presidential contender Tulsi Gabbard, now a Trump loyalist, as director of national intelligence. Creates more concerns. Gabbard has shown no evidence of expertise in intelligence. No one should be surprised by this development.
(Ajay Kumar is a senior journalist. He is the former managing editor of Business Standard and former executive editor of The Economic Times.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
