The Russia-Ukraine war began exactly two years ago. The very next day, on February 25, 2022, India abstained from voting on a draft resolution at the United Nations Security Council. Throughout the ongoing war, New Delhi has been refraining from taking clear sides, much to the dismay of the establishments in both the European Union and the United States. After the much-publicised visit to Moscow in July, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Ukraine while maintaining India’s declared position of strategic neutrality, questions are being asked in global capitals about India’s intent. This is the first time an Indian Prime Minister has visited independent Ukraine since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
There has been enough discussion domestically on India’s alleged role in world peace and other great undertakings. Let us now bring back realism in the game.
Isolation from the West is not an option
Domestic discussions aside, what the Western world – the US, EU, UK coalition – thinks about India’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict really matters to India. No matter what the chauvinistic nationalist ecosystem wants, disengaging from the West is not an option for India. This is not just diplomatic posturing. Since 2014, Prime Minister Modi has been making diplomatic and cultural gestures to strengthen India-EU relations. The level of engagement has increased to secure the vital strategic and economic partnership between India and EU member states. While India’s relations with Ukraine have not historically been in the headlines, the implications are no less significant. This is why India has consistently condemned Russian aggression against Ukraine.
With his visit to Kyiv, PM Modi may unveil India’s growing dealings with EU member states for its defence and strategic needs. After all, Russian manpower and machines have performed dismally in the current theatre. It is time that Indian generals should stop defending Russian infrastructure, as they too depend on it and should swear by its ferocity. India has options for its defence and modernisation needs and it should use them. After all, what is the use of partnerships like the Trade and Technology Council (TTC) set up by the EU with India in April 2022?
Exports from Russia are declining
It bears reiterating that India’s arms purchases from Russia saw a significant drop after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. This trend has continued, and according to the latest reports from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Russian exports to India are projected to decline from 76% in 2009-2013 to 36% in 2019-2024. While India remains the largest market for the Russian arms industry, it is also buying from elsewhere, and this trend is increasing. War-weary Moscow is unlikely to meet New Delhi’s growing defence needs, given its neighbourhood concerns.
In contrast, other countries are rolling out their catalogues for New Delhi to browse. The French are coming hot and sexy with their Rafale jets and a “defence industrial roadmap” to jointly design and develop mechanical infrastructure. India and France have joined hands to manufacture submarines, fighter aircraft engines and multi-role helicopters. Ukraine, which accounts for 11% of India’s total defence imports, is also an important partner. India is also deepening defence and security ties with countries like South Korea, South Africa and Poland. It is no coincidence that PM Modi stopped in Poland before visiting Ukraine.
A wise move by India
By maintaining its stance of strategic neutrality, India is securing self-interest-driven allies in Europe and Asia without US dominance. This is a wise move on India’s part, considering the ever-looming shadow of China in the neighbourhood. The US has shown reluctance to share critical defence technology with India despite promises and agreements, such as the deal struck between General Electric and Indian partners for technology to power its new fleet of fighter jets. India knows better than to trust the US, a country that holds its military-industrial complex dearer than any ideological principle.
It is clear that India – despite being “in favour of peace” – is putting its national interests above everything else. Mikhailo Podolyak, a presidential adviser in Ukraine, believes that India “really has a certain influence” on Russia. It is this reputation that India wants to leverage in its effort to emerge as a credible global negotiator. Only those who have the power can negotiate, the rest only push.
The timing of Modi’s visit to Ukraine is about right. India is not expected to use a magic wand to bring Moscow and Kiev to the negotiating table. The military situation is still heated. Even a slight easing of the fighting would be enough to dent India’s influence. No significant developments can be expected in the region until the US elects its next president. Until the US puts its house in order and takes a fresh look at its obligations to NATO, the way is open for India to move swiftly towards its strategic goals – choosing realism over idealism and empty talk.
(Nishtha Gautam is a Delhi-based writer and academician.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal views of the author
