Free and fair elections in democratic societies reveal the spirit of a nation, especially in the United States with extended election cycles. On the eve of the decisive vote, what is the public mood in the world’s most influential country?
If anyone were to capture the prevailing sentiment in America as Election Day approaches, it would be “Blue Funk”. The atmosphere is filled with anxiety, division and a sense of foreboding. With almost complete polarization and growing intolerance due to Donald Trump’s extremist campaign style, this election is being watched with unprecedented anxiety, unhappiness and fear.
Nearly nine in 10 voters believe the United States will suffer permanent damage if their side loses. Nearly 60% of Kamala Harris supporters are feeling “terrified” about Trump’s victory; 47% of Trump supporters feel the same way about Harris’ victory. More than half of voters fear potential violence after the election, and 53% expect divisions in the country to deepen regardless of the outcome. What is worrying is that one in five Americans would consider resorting to violence to achieve political goals.
“People are fed up”
Scott Evans, 64, an early voter from Atlanta, expressed his disillusionment: “I feel like I live in a country that I don’t want to live in anymore.” “Civil War people are against the government,” said 21-year-old student Madison Bates. “I definitely think if Trump didn’t get involved, that’s what could happen. People are fed up. You see it every day.” “
This seriousness is evident in the public opinion metrics. Six in 10 voters feel the country is on the wrong track. More than half say their situation is worse than four years ago. In swing states, seven in 10 voters believe substantial changes or even a complete overhaul of the political and economic systems are needed, and they believe the economy is rigged to benefit the rich and powerful. .
The public’s view of politics and politicians is “consistently negative”. More than a quarter of respondents (28%) view both major parties unfavorably, and 63% have little or no confidence in the future of the political system. It’s no surprise that a non-partisan group has dubbed American voters a “tired majority.”
What do Americans think about the economy?
In politics, perception often becomes reality, especially on the topic of the economy, voters’ top concern. Only 5% of Americans consider the current economy to be “excellent” or “good”, while 51% believe it is in “bad” or “terrible” shape.
Real disposable personal income, essentially take home pay, has been stagnant for the past four years. The price of essential goods has increased by 20% during this period, and the costs of housing, child care, and health care are still rising, making affordability a significant concern, with many blaming the Biden-Harris administration. Are.
The impact is particularly severe on the 60% of voters without a college degree. In 1980, blue-collar workers earned about 10% more than the national average, enabling them to support families, buy homes, take vacations, and send their children to college. Forty years later, their inflation-adjusted income has stagnated, and they now make 10% less than the average worker.
Unionization rates have historically been highest in the Midwest, in the swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, where organized labor once provided a premium on wages. With the decline in unionized manufacturing jobs, incomes have declined compared to other sectors, leaving many vulnerable to the MAGA narrative that they are suffering in a zero-sum economy where immigrants and women benefit at their expense. Is.
a subtle reality
Yet, the reality of the US economy is more nuanced and less dire. While prices rose nearly 20% from the start of the pandemic to 2023, the average worker’s hourly wages rose more than 26%. From 2019 to 2023, wages for the lowest-paid workers grew four times faster than those of middle-class earners, and 10 times faster than those of the wealthiest workers. Wages of workers under 25 have also grown twice as fast as older workers. Meanwhile, the “college wage premium” (the wage gap between those with and without a college degree) has fallen to its lowest level in 15 years.
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances, conducted every three years, shows that from 2019 to 2022, the average American household’s net worth increased 37%, from about $141,000 to $192,000, adjusted for inflation. This is the largest three-year increase on record since 1989. Significant net worth increases were seen across every income group, with the largest increases seen among low-income, middle-class, black, Latino, and youth households, with modest decreases occurring among households. wealth inequality.
The economic picture remains complex, with significant recovery for many coupled with persistent affordability challenges for others, shaping a conflicted national mood as voters head to the polls.
economist presented some telling statistics in its recent cover story on the US economy titled jealousy of the worldAverage wages in America’s poorest state, Mississippi, are higher than the averages in Britain, Canada and Germany. This year, the average American worker will generate economic output of approximately $171,000, representing a 70% increase in productivity over the past 25 years. The US accounts for more than half of global private sector investment in AI. As the paper concluded: “An economy with an unemployment rate of 4% and per capita GDP of $85,000 doesn’t need to be made great again; it is great.”
Trump’s immigration bet
Trump knows that immigration puts the Biden-Harris administration in a slippery situation, which is why he has made it his major campaign issue, bypassing his advisers’ calls to prioritize the economy. The administration kept the borders relatively open until this June, when enforcement measures were finally tightened. Harris has attempted to shift some of the blame to Trump, citing her role in blocking a bipartisan bill in early 2024 that would have enacted tougher policies sooner. But this strategy has not gained momentum.
Over the past two years, net immigration to the US has been the highest globally, with 2.6 million immigrants in 2022 and 3.3 million immigrants in 2023. Since Biden took office, nine million immigrants have entered the country, nearly half of them undocumented. Only one in five Americans find these numbers acceptable; 32% believe the US should “slow the influx” of immigrants, and 16% are in favor of “putting a cap on new arrivals”. One-third say the US should “immediately close the border”.
Trump has rallied his base, particularly the MAGA contingent, against undocumented immigrants, putting their number at between 20–25 million, though the real figure is likely about half that. He has pledged to carry out mass deportations if elected. More than 60% of Americans, including 53% of Hispanics, say they support a program to deport undocumented immigrants.
Immigration has become a flashpoint, underscoring deep cultural divisions in America. Studies indicate that immigrants’ “different way of life” is often viewed as a threat to long-standing communities with older, non-college-educated, working-class, predominantly white populations. European background, as well as religious and rural American. These groups are feeling alienated by changes in social and moral values, which they believe elites have a hand in destroying traditional identity.
religion and politics
Despite the decline in religiosity, nearly two-thirds of Americans identify themselves as Christian, according to the Public Religion Research Institute. In the 1980s, white Christians, particularly “born-again” evangelicals (who make up 14% of the population), emerged as a major Republican voting bloc. Today, 60% of Protestants, including 8 in 10 white Christians, support Trump. Polls by political scientist Paul Juppe show that 18% of Americans strongly agree that modern-day prophets continue to reveal God’s plans for humanity. Of these, three-fifths believe the upcoming election may be the last chance to “ridd America of demonic influence”, and two-fifths believe “the country can be Civil war may be necessary to bring it back.
Gender is another widening social divide. The political views of men and women are diverging sharply, with a recent poll showing men favoring Trump by four points and women favoring Harris by 10 points. Nearly seven in 10 Trump supporters believe Harris’s policies will make men’s lives worse. Whereas in the Obama years, the gap between young men and women identifying as liberal was only five points, under the Trump-Biden years the gap has tripled to 15 points.
Historically, incumbents need around a 40% approval rating to secure re-election; Approval of the Biden-Harris administration currently stands at around 28%. Still, with Harris facing a tight race with Trump in the final days, her viability largely depends on Trump’s unfavorable ratings. Trump’s net negative rating among American voters remains high. The Harris campaign is hoping for a popular vote advantage to offset the Republican tilt of the Electoral College.
Stay tuned for next week’s final updates on the US presidential elections.
(Ajay Kumar is a senior journalist. He is the former managing editor of Business Standard and former executive editor of The Economic Times.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
