This year’s election is being called one of the most important contests in American history and will have a very significant impact on the world. here’s why.
US-China trade war
This is a major cause of current global fragmentation. It was Trump who initiated the policy change towards China in his previous term from 2016-2020, raising tariffs on Chinese products and vowing to reduce the trade deficit. He accused Beijing of abusing international economic institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) and said it was responsible for “the greatest theft in the history of the world”.
The Biden administration did not completely abandon what Trump had started. In fact, from AUKUS to the renewed focus on the Quad, Biden strengthened the security alliance against China. On the other hand, China and Russia have moved closer to each other as a result of policy moves over the last eight years between Trump and Biden. This has deepened the rift between the Global West and the Global East.
So, much depends on the new US President – ​​will the new POTUS deepen divisions, will global cooperation become even more difficult, or will the new President look in favor of cooperation to prevent any further global fragmentation?
democracy vs totalitarianism
As stated in a 2023 report by the Carnegie Endowment of International Peace, American society is “emotionally polarized”. Interestingly, it notes that Americans are not as ideologically polarized as they believe themselves to be, which means there is likely overlap regarding policies on many important topics, such as abortion and gun violence.
However, both parties have a dislike for each other, preventing any meaningful dialogue. The world’s oldest democracy, the United States is often seen as an example of the success or failure of democracy, especially in times of increasing authoritarianism. Consensus building is an important feature of democracy. The new US President needs to be a unifier and consensus builder to stand as a true representative of the liberal world order.
transfer of power
Another important democratic norm is to respect the mandate of the people and allow a smooth transition of power. There is real concern about a repeat of the January 6 insurrection if Donald Trump loses again. Republicans appear to be laying the groundwork to reject the results in the event of an unfavorable outcome. Trump’s rhetoric that the 2020 election was stolen has resurfaced in the final stages of the election.
In an unusual move, but indicative of what is at stake, a report from think tank Policy Horizons Canada has advised Ottawa to be alert to the possibility of civil war in the US. Although it was only one sentence in a longer report called Disruptions on the Horizon, it said, “…ideological divisions, democratic erosion and domestic unrest are growing, pushing the country deeper into civil war”. Even remotely, the fact that the possibility of unrest is being considered is cause for concern for a world that cannot afford any more economic shocks.
immigration policy
Trump has said that if he comes to power, he will launch the largest deportation campaign in American history. The Pew survey states, “Nearly six in ten Trump supporters (63%) say there should be a national effort to deport undocumented immigrants currently living in the US.” The report notes that intolerance toward immigrants is on the rise and “since 2021, the share of voters supporting a national effort by law enforcement to deport undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. has increased by 11 percentage points, Which has increased from 26% to 37%. ,
Meanwhile, Kamala Harris’ campaign ad ‘Tuffer’ also depicts a tough stance on immigration. Many also believe that she has backtracked on her earlier stance of decriminalizing illegal border crossings.
There is a simultaneous conflict going on from Ukraine to Gaza. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees says there were 43.4 million refugees globally by the end of 2023. This is a time when countries—especially the richest countries—must consider this issue from a humanitarian perspective. In this context, a strict immigration policy would signal to the rest of the world to tighten borders against those in need.
end of wars
Which way will the Ukraine and Gaza tensions go under the leadership of the new US President? Trump says he will be able to end the Ukraine war immediately. The fear in Europe is that he will do this by handing over Ukrainian territory to Putin. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is unlikely to change the stance it has taken on Ukraine if Harris comes to power.
On Gaza, Trump says Netanyahu “must deal with this soon”, indicating further intensification of military action in Gaza. Even though Kamala has been criticized for being party to the Biden administration’s support for Israeli actions in Gaza, there are those who believe that her recent stance towards the humanitarian aspect of the conflict is an attempt to pressure Netanyahu against his illegal war. Gives room for.
The wars and conflicts that are taking the world to another flux can be resolved only through the political will of the United States, the leader of global hegemony.
(Maha Siddiqui is a journalist who has reported widely on public policy and global affairs.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author