Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be visiting Poland and Ukraine this week. Both visits are historic in their own way: to Poland it will be the first by an Indian prime minister in 45 years, while to Ukraine it will be the first by an Indian prime minister. While Modi has spoken about India and Poland’s “mutual commitment to democracy and pluralism” that strengthens bilateral ties, he has also expressed “hope for an early return of peace and stability” to Ukraine.
China and India are often lumped into the same category when it comes to their response to the Ukraine war. But Modi’s visit, which comes after his highly controversial trip to Russia last month, is exactly why the world should not compare them.
India is not just a mediator in Europe
Modi’s visit to Russia last month surprised many as it was also his first foreign trip in his third term. There is now talk that India could become a potential peacemaker in the Russia-Ukraine war. But this is not true. Modi will go to Ukraine to underline that New Delhi’s position on the war remains steadfast. Despite its close ties with Russia and its decision not to publicly call Russia an aggressor, New Delhi has always maintained that the sanctity of territorial integrity and sovereignty remains inviolable in international affairs, and dialogue and diplomacy are the only way to a lasting outcome.
Unlike China, Modi publicly told Putin during his visit to Moscow that this was not an era of war, and expressed grief over the deaths of children following Russia’s deadly attack on Kiev’s main children’s hospital. At the time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned Modi for visiting Russia, calling the trip a “devastating blow to peace efforts”. But New Delhi has continued to maintain its ties with both Moscow and Kiev over the past two-and-a-half years of war, adamant in its belief that the two sides must negotiate if a lasting solution is to be found.
A new approach to Europe
Europe is facing growing internal challenges, growing regional divisions, a war that shows no signs of ending, the rise of China, calls for isolationism in the US, and fractures in the post-Cold War security order. The end of the Ukraine war will perhaps lay the foundation for a new security order in Europe, but that end is nowhere in sight as both sides look for favourable battlefield realities that they can potentially leverage at the negotiating table. It is at this critical juncture that Europe has begun to look at India as a key partner.
And New Delhi has done the same. India now sees Europe as central to its developmental and strategic priorities. This is driven by the extraordinary diplomatic investment made by the Modi government in energising its relations with Europe. An emerging feature of this outreach is that India is trying to engage with different sub-regions of Europe, allowing New Delhi to focus on their core strengths. The focus is now on Central Europe, with Modi visiting Austria last month and now Poland and Ukraine. The region has developed its own unique voice on European affairs, and especially after Russian aggression, it has been important in shaping the larger European response to regional and global issues.
Why is Poland important for New Delhi?
As far as Modi’s visit to Poland is concerned, it is one of the fastest growing economies in Europe and has been vocal about its strategic aspirations to see Europe emerge as a major geopolitical actor on the global stage. Warsaw’s role in shaping the European security architecture will also be crucial once the sparks of war in Ukraine die down. Its location makes it a hub of connectivity across Europe, and India enjoys a lot of goodwill. If India is to move beyond France, Germany and the UK in its European imagination, building strong economic ties with Poland will be crucial. Modi’s visit should lay the foundation for a long-term sustainable partnership with Warsaw.
It is in New Delhi’s interest that a sustainable security architecture takes shape in Europe, as European stability is crucial for a globally connected India, which has significant stakes in that geography. New Delhi will not play the role of a mediator. It has its eyes on the larger horizon, where India’s emergence as a reliable partner of Europe is seen as crucial to ensuring that its own developmental and strategic priorities remain insulated from wider disruption.
(Harsh V Pant is vice president of studies at ORF)
Disclaimer: These are the personal views of the author
