London is known for its open intellectual atmosphere, where no idea is off-limits. But even in this dynamic city – and indeed in Washington – it is almost blasphemous to suggest that Russia and the West can be partners, or that the US and China can co-exist as global powers. Recently, Nigel Farage, leader of the Reform Party in the UK, faced a storm for urging the West to negotiate sensibly with Russia over Ukraine, calling the war a ‘complete stalemate’. People accused him of “repeating Russian propaganda”.
In India we often hear that we are not able to create a society where all ideas are welcome. But hopefully this will start a new chapter.Hindi-Chinese are brothers“(India-China brotherhood) is not seen as blasphemy. Anti-China sentiment seems to be waning after the Galwan Valley clash in 2020. We are buying more Chinese goods than ever before. Our bilateral trade will exceed $136 billion in 2023. Hopefully, those who burnt Chinese products in Gujarat and Delhi after the border clashes are now more open to the idea.
Of course, it may seem crazy to suggest that India and China should become trusted partners like the US and India or Russia and China. But, it is not entirely impossible either.
Of course, it may seem crazy to suggest that India and China should become trusted partners like the US and India or Russia and China. But, it is not entirely impossible either.
Major geopolitical shifts
India’s rise to global power is unstoppable; even China knows that. Talking to Chinese academics and journalists, you get the sense that they are ready to establish a long-term relationship based on mutual respect. They like India, they want greater people-to-people contact, and one of them even recently wondered why India doesn’t try to work its magic on the dragon through its soft power of Bollywood
Both countries have a responsibility to lift millions of their 2.8 billion people out of poverty. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to make India a developed country by 2047, which is a huge task. There are challenges, but if India and China work together and leverage each other’s strengths, it could be a major geopolitical shift that could have far-reaching effects on global politics.
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A closer partnership between India and China may surprise and worry the US and its allies. The rivalry between the two countries has benefited the West as it suits their strategy to balance the rise of China. A partnership between these two Asian giants could undermine the West’s strategic interests in the region. Kishore Mahbubani, former Singapore ambassador to the United Nations, has often said that most people in Asia would be happy if this happens.
So can India and China find a common ground despite tensions along their disputed border? Prof. Mahbubani believes that even though the two will never be best friends, they can have a good working relationship. He even says that the 21st century belongs to the CIA (China, India and ASEAN) countries. With the decline of US power, these countries will drive the world’s economic growth.
a rollercoaster ride
The idea of India and China being close friends is not new. Historically, they have behaved like quarrelsome neighbours who fight and reconcile frequently. They also share a long history of cultural and economic exchange dating back more than two millennia. The Silk Road facilitated trade and Buddhism, which originated in India, found significant following in China. These ancient ties laid the foundation for mutual respect and cultural affinity. During the colonial era, both countries suffered subjugation by Western powers, fuelling a sense of shared struggle.
After gaining independence from the British, India faced border disputes with China and the relationship between them remains tense. In the early 1950s, the two countries had cordial relations, symbolized by “Hindi-Chinese are brothers“. However, this period of cooperation was short-lived. The border dispute escalated into a full-scale war in 1962, which left a permanent scar on bilateral relations. The disputed borders, particularly in the Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh regions, remain contentious issues.
The rivalry between the US and China will continue and the US will continue to put pressure on India in an effort to contain China. However, India’s strategic position between the US and China can be beneficial to it.
Before the Galwan incident, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was naturally inclined towards dialogue with China. As chief minister of Gujarat, he made four visits to the country to attract investments. As prime minister, he visited China twice and President Xi Jinping also visited India twice. Both countries have emerged as major global economic powers, engaging in significant areas of economic competition and cooperation within multilateral frameworks such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
Strategic rivalry
Strategically, India and China view each other with suspicion. China’s close ties with Pakistan, its infrastructure projects in South Asia under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and its military presence in the Indian Ocean have raised India’s security concerns.
In contrast, India’s growing partnership with the US and its participation in the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) is viewed warily by China. The clash in the Galwan Valley in 2020 further escalated tensions and exposed the fragility of the relationship. Despite several rounds of military and diplomatic talks, a comprehensive solution to border disputes still remains elusive.
Mumbai’s Shanghai Dreams
Many young people in India may not know that until not very long ago, India used to compare itself with Pakistan in all fields. This attitude changed at the turn of the millennium, when the Maharashtra government launched a mega project to rejuvenate Mumbai in 2004, based on the “Vision Mumbai” report by Bombay First, an organization composed of some of Mumbai’s super-rich stakeholders. The report outlined strategies to transform Mumbai into “another Shanghai”. While the project to transform Mumbai is still a “work in progress”, it started the comparison of India with China. Today, China considers India its big rival, at least in Asia.
Read | China is reforming its military, India should not take it lightly
Projections suggest that the Indian economy will surpass Germany and Japan to become the world’s third largest economy by 2027. However, India’s economy is currently only 19% of China’s economy, even though it provides food to almost the same number of people. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India’s nominal GDP in 2023 was $3.5 trillion, while China’s was $18.2 trillion. India’s per capita income was $2,411, while China’s was $12,720. China’s exports were more than $3.38 trillion last year, while India’s exports were $778 billion.
Prospects for cooperation
Since China opened up its economy in 1978, it has lifted 800 million people out of poverty – an achievement not matched by any regime in history. India has also succeeded in substantially reducing poverty. Both countries have many more millions to help. Cooperation in economic development, technology, infrastructure, environmental initiatives, healthcare, cultural exchange and geopolitical stability can benefit both countries and the world. Overcoming historical tensions and building trust through frequent dialogue will be important.
The intense rivalry between the US and China will continue, and India will remain under US pressure to remain a reliable partner in its effort to contain China. However, India’s strategic position between the US and China can be beneficial to it. Ultimately, New Delhi’s strategic interests are best served by a balanced approach that navigates the complex dynamics of US-China relations while advancing its own national objectives.
India knows that neighbouring countries with shared borders may sometimes have fights, but they can still continue to believe in the policy of ‘love your neighbour’.
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a senior London-based Indian journalist with three decades of experience in Western media)
Disclaimer: These are the personal views of the author