limited control, irgc influence increases
Four officials familiar with the matter, cited by The New York Times, said Khamenei had minimal contact with Iranian generals during the ongoing talks. Analysts suggest this has created a power vacuum that has been quickly filled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).“Mojtaba is not yet in full command or control,” Sanam Vakil of Chatham House told the NYT. He said the decisions are often presented to him as a “failed achievement”.Ali Waze of the International Crisis Group echoed this view, saying, “Mojtaba is not supreme; he may be the leader in name, but he is not supreme like his father… Mojtaba is subordinate to the Revolutionary Guards,” as quoted by the NYT.
Change in governance amid pressure of war
According to the NYT, the IRGC played a decisive role in blocking planned talks with the United States in Islamabad, sidelining Iran’s civilian leadership, including President Massoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.Khamenei, who succeeded his father Ali Khamenei after his death in US-Israeli attacks, has not made any public appearances or verbal statements since taking office, reportedly to avoid appearing weak.Instead, communication with them is being done through sealed, hand-delivered letters.
‘Board-style’ leadership emerges
Describing the emerging power structure, former adviser Abdolreza Dawri told the NYT, “Mojtaba is managing the country as if he is a board of directors… a member of the general board.”The change marks a departure from the previous centralized authority under his father, with military commanders now playing a more prominent role in decision making.The development comes as an indefinite ceasefire remains in place between Iran and the United States, with both sides assessing ways to restart talks and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.However, with internal power dynamics in flux and the IRGC claiming greater control, the prospects for diplomacy remain uncertain.