As the year ended, Prime Minister Narendra Modi started it with a historic visit to Kuwait, the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to the country in 43 years. He was awarded ‘The Order of Mubarak Al Kabir’ by the Emir of Kuwait Sheikh Meshaal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al Sabah, which he accepted on behalf of 1.4 billion Indians. The two countries elevated their relations to ‘strategic partnership’ focusing on various sectors including politics, trade, investment, energy, defence, security, health, education technology, cultural and people-to-people relations. The visit further cemented India’s broader reach in the Middle East, where the Modi government is fundamentally reconfiguring both India’s presence and commitments. At a time when the Middle East is torn by various fault lines and on the brink of region-wide war, New Delhi’s ability to maintain close ties with all key stakeholders – the Gulf Arab states, Israel and Iran – speaks volumes. . India’s diplomatic success.
This year also saw India and China finally manage to come out of the impasse caused by the 2020 Galwan crisis and China’s aggression. It was an important diplomatic victory for New Delhi to get Beijing to admit that China’s actions had derailed the relationship. Since 2020, India’s position has been clear and unambiguous that unless the status quo is restored on the LAC, there is no possibility of normalization of bilateral relations. While the Indian Army maintained the line on the border, Indian diplomacy stuck to the country’s red lines, which ultimately forced China to change its position.
In October, China and India reached an agreement on patrolling a section of their long-disputed shared border. The agreement temporarily ended a four-year standoff in the high Himalayan mountains that had severely strained relations between the two countries. It also allowed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping to meet in Russia and hold talks for the first time in five years. In 2020, a bloody confrontation in the Galwan Valley left dozens of soldiers dead and bilateral diplomatic ties between the two Asian giants were suspended, entering a state of deep freeze. The Indian public was angered by Chinese aggression, and the Modi government canceled direct flights between the countries and banned the social media app TikTok, among other measures to punish China. Now there is a possibility of relations becoming normal again.
But China and India have no desirable “normal” status quo to return to. Challenges abound in bilateral relations, and China’s ambitions continue to limit India’s ability to act regionally and globally. Several flash points remain along the border and could be reactivated at any time by Xi’s aggressive regime. Although Modi has tried more than his predecessors to take a stronger stance against Chinese expansionism, India’s economy remains largely dependent on China. Even though India’s exports to China have declined to some extent in the last five years, its imports from China have increased. It is this challenge of dependence on the Chinese economy that India will have to manage effectively if it wants the current trend in relations to continue.
The two powers that will play an important role in helping India control China are the US and Russia. India has been effective in building partnerships with both, even if they do not see eye to eye, especially since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. India-US relations continued to improve this year despite differences over developments in India’s neighborhood and allegations that Indian security agents were involved in an assassination attempt against a Sikh separatist leader. With the election of Donald Trump to the White House, it is expected that convergence of mutual interests will continue to drive the trajectory of relations.
Relations with Russia have strengthened and Modi has made Moscow his first contact point after his third consecutive victory in the parliamentary elections. And India’s posture of maintaining equal distance between Russia and Ukraine and calling for political dialogue has paid dividends as the West and Russia have agreed to end the active phase of hostilities under the Trump administration that escalated the war. Not at all keen to prolong. If Trump manages to end the Ukraine war and by doing so manages to drive a wedge between China and Russia, New Delhi will face a more favorable external environment.
It is in the neighborhood that India suffered perhaps its biggest blow this year when Sheikh Hasina had to leave Bangladesh in August after weeks of student-led protests that also erupted in violence. In fact it was expected that after Hasina, there would be turbulence in Delhi-Dhaka relations, given the partnership that India had built with Hasina. Anti-India rhetoric emanating from key stakeholders in the interim administration has soured the environment for productive government engagement, even as incidents of violence against Hindus as well as attacks on temples over the past few months have soured relations between the two countries. The strong social bond between them has been put in danger. India has its work cut out as it seeks to preserve its relations with its close ally in South Asia. If India-Bangladesh relations witnessed instability, India’s relations with other regional players such as Maldives and Sri Lanka have stabilised.
This year, India’s global profile rose as New Delhi sought to enhance its voice in the international system as well as the voice of the Global South. For most countries today, India is an important partner that must be respected and for India, the world is indeed becoming its oyster. New Delhi must continue to work on raising its global profile at a time when there are immense opportunities to harness.
(Harsh V Pant is vice president of studies at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
