Of all the BRICS leaders, Russian President Vladimir Putin is perhaps the most eagerly awaiting this year’s summit, scheduled to be held in Kazan on October 22-24.
Last year he did not attend the summit in South Africa due to fear of being arrested. In March 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Putin over alleged war crimes committed during Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. South Africa, as a signatory to the Rome Statute, would have been obliged to arrest him upon entering the country. And so, Putin had to make do with virtual participation.
But this year’s BRICS summit will be a crucial moment for him as he will not only be hosting the event in his own region but he will also be keen to show the Western world that sanctions on Russia and isolating it diplomatically are a big deal. Despite efforts, it still hosts some of the world’s most influential leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Putin’s efforts as a host will be to highlight Russia’s successful outreach to non-Western countries.
It is true that despite Western sanctions, Russia remains an important member of this dynamic group, representing 24% of global nominal GDP and 41% of the world’s population. Despite efforts to isolate Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, Putin can also claim that Moscow remains a major player in reshaping the world order, drawing strength from its BRICS alliances. These relationships illustrate how countries outside the G7 are seeking alternatives to Western-dominated institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
BRICS is here to stay
BRICS, the economic and political alliance of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, has gained considerable prominence since its inception 15 years ago. Political analysts, economists and academics in the West had long predicted its demise. For example, political risk consultancy Eurasia Group questioned the relevance of BRICS in 2013, saying, “BRICS is a term that has lost its relevance… It is a group that does not have much coherence , and it’s not clear what they’re trying to accomplish together.”
But it is not only persisting but also expanding, defying Western skepticism. Its newest members are Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates. The bloc has attracted the interest of about 40 other countries, including NATO member Türkiye, which has now formally applied for its membership. Indonesia has also been invited to join, but seems reluctant to be part of a grouping it views as anti-Western.
India should create its own playing field
Even after the establishment of the Indian National Congress in 1885, it remained a petitioner of the British Raj. The claim for the right to self-determination was weak until Mahatma Gandhi arrived on the national scene.
Today, India should not be seen petitioning for a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The United Nations and the UNSC, formed after World War II, are relics of the 20th century. The global landscape has changed dramatically since then, with emerging economies like India eager to play a far more important role in global affairs.
As the world’s most populous country, fifth largest economy and a strong democracy, Indians believe they should have a permanent voice in decision-making processes affecting global peace and security. But the US, often in cooperation with its Western allies, wields considerable influence within the UN system, which allows it to influence its priorities and decision-making. America is so powerful that it has managed to stop the progress of even BRICS. For example, many Chinese banks have stopped transactions with Russia to avoid US penalties, and the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) has halted its projects in Russia due to US sanctions.
The Indian government is not necessarily in favor of dismantling the existing US-led world order. It argues that the system should be more inclusive; He wants what he believes is his right in the existing system. It urges reform of global financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, highlighting its desire for a more equitable distribution of power in the global system.
The West is ‘protecting’ the existing system
The three permanent members of the UNSC, the US, France and Britain, have often openly supported India’s stance on reform of international bodies. But it is not clear how true his intentions are. With the outbreak of war in Ukraine, violence in West Asia, and the emergence of China as a global challenger, the US and its Western allies have become more assertive in protecting their dominance over the world order.
For India, the time to petition or expect favors from the West without reciprocation is over. India should use BRICS as a platform to raise its voice in global governance. It should value BRICS as a platform to advocate for a multipolar world. This does not mean that New Delhi should allow BRICS to become an explicitly anti-Western grouping. But he should use this platform to his advantage. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has often talked about India’s ambition to be the leading voice of the global south. Global bodies such as BRICS and G20 provide the means to achieve such goals.
Why does China have the upper hand?
India has benefited economically from the grouping, particularly through subsidized Russian energy imports amid Western sanctions. Being a founding member of BRICS, India must realize that global forums like BRICS and the G20 are credible products of a new, multipolar international order. If you do not find your rightful place in the existing system, you help create a new, more equitable system, without separating yourself from the existing system. India’s increased participation in BRICS and G20 reflects its willingness to work within the existing global order while advocating for change.
India should go one step ahead and become an agent of change. It should not allow China to control the BRICS agenda. But sadly, even though India is a founding member, it does not have as much direct influence as China, mainly because of China’s economic and geopolitical clout. Despite sanctions, Russia remains a major player in BRICS, particularly because it sees the grouping as a way to balance Western influence. But India’s importance within the group is undeniable in some areas. For example, it brings credibility to the faction because of its democratic credentials. It is an established global player in the IT sector and a large market for investment.
What does the West think about BRICS?
Many in the West now seem to take BRICS quite seriously as a counterbalance to Western hegemony. But he suspects that underlying divisions within the group could hinder its progress as a true alternative to the West-dominated world order. China and Russia are pushing for BRICS to become a decidedly anti-Western grouping. The recent inclusion of anti-West Iran at his behest is an example of this. Indeed, Western experts believe that the alliance, frustrated with Western dominance, is looking for alternative centers of power.
Under President Xi Jinping, China is trying to create an alternative global financial and technological system to prevent the dominance of the US dollar. Projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the creation of the New Development Bank (NDB), and efforts to internationalize the yuan are aligned with Chinese goals of establishing an alternative multipolar world order.
On the other hand, India, South Africa and Brazil do not fully agree with China’s ambitions. They are in favor of reforming the existing global system rather than destroying it. Their goal is to create a multipolar world where they can balance relations between the US and China, without being completely aligned with either.
The question of whether BRICS can maintain its unity amid internal differences looms over the Kazan summit. I will keenly watch how the summit navigates the competing national interests of its members. But one can say with confidence that the group’s relevance as a counterweight to Western power is undeniable.
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with western media)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
