Everyone loves a good host. Everyone loves a strong host. Everyone loves a host who offers guided tours.
In this limited context, India’s Prime Minister is no different from this author. Both are favourite guests in their respective hosts’ homes, and this summer stay is meaningful for all. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visits to Moscow, six so far, always arouse interest in global capitals. The recent two-day visit is no exception.
Beyond the romantic
Having understood the symbolism behind the Putin-Modi “bear hug” and the host taking his Indian counterpart for a ride in an electric car, we should get to the point. How much do Russia and India mean to each other today? This question can only be answered after removing all the romanticism that defines India-Russia relations.
The meeting between Modi and Putin comes at an interesting juncture in history for both leaders. While the Indian Prime Minister begins his third consecutive term with a much smaller mandate than his previous two terms, Putin’s domestic base remains as volatile as ever. However, the Western world views him with critical eyes.
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Western capitals are already abuzz about how India has flouted the ‘rules’ to pursue its interests. Like China or Iran. Or other countries challenging the West’s dictate of isolating Putin by continuing their economic and diplomatic ties with Russia. The biggest challenge for India is to differentiate itself from the so-called ‘untouchables’. But how can India do that, when it already has the status of being the second-largest importer of Russian oil? Modi is now the recipient of the Russian government’s highest civilian honour, the Order of St Andrew. Of course the timing of this visit has been a little difficult for Modi, as the same day Russia bombed a children’s hospital in Ukraine. India can ignore the disappointment of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, but what does this Russian friendship mean for India today, if it is met with only condemnation and disappointment from friends?
Friends and Foes
India has the China issue. It is not a problem as the world wants India to believe, but it is an issue – a neighbourhood issue. Russia’s supposedly unlimited friendship with China is India’s ace in this geopolitical game. China does not care about the threats of its enemies; it can listen to its friends, who are now spread far and wide and few in number. India knows very well how to rely on such friends. New Delhi’s ideological flexibility allows it to do so.
John Mearsheimer, the pioneer of the theory of offensive realism, says, “The international system is anarchic. The most fundamental motive that drives states is survival.” India executes its aggressive campaign in a fascinating manner. ‘Strategic autonomy’ is a theoretical concept for the West, if it is applied to countries it does not deem worthy of said autonomy. India has been able to survive as a functioning democracy for more than seven decades, partly because of its strategic autonomy. Not descending to the lowest levels of foreign-aided civil wars, coups and constitutional anarchy like its neighbours has been India’s greatest achievement since independence.
Modi’s card in Moscow
The emergence of India and China as economic powers coincided with the deterioration in US-China relations after the Tiananmen Square incident in 1989. Economic reforms in the early 1990s paved the way for India’s rapid and resilient rise. Whether we could have done better or what more could have been done to sustain the momentum is a different debate. How China overtook India is also not relevant to this issue. In fact, India’s current stance as an important regional player is important. And that is the card Modi took to Moscow.
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Putin is counting on his space and nuclear prowess to not only establish his regional dominance but also to consolidate his position in the global world order. India too has made significant progress in these areas. India needs nuclear technology, Russia is willing to sell it. The calculation is simple. The six nuclear plants under discussion, setting up of defence production facilities, military cooperation, development of national payment systems to eliminate dependence on the dollar and a steady supply of Russian oil to fuel India’s infrastructure dreams are important to both Moscow and New Delhi. And they are equally important to policymakers and analysts in the West. With a renewed friendship with Russia, where might India be placed in the new geopolitical order?
Modi’s Moscow visit is made from a position of power. It is neither a hollow gesture of piety nor should it be seen as escapism. No wonder it has angered many power centres in the US and Europe. But India has not done anything new or extraordinary or contrary to the country’s long-standing foreign policy. New Delhi remains non-aligned. But it is also starting to think for itself.
And good friends and hosts enable anyone who tries to do so.
(Nishtha Gautam is a Delhi-based writer and academician.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal views of the author
