The pinnacle of Joe Biden’s presidency was his first day in the Oval Office, when he confidently declared “America is back.” He said that as soon as the US rejoins the Paris climate accord – an optimistic promise to reclaim global leadership. The lowest point of his presidency was October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched its brutal attack on Israel. It was a stark reminder that American influence and security assurances, once taken for granted, are no longer what they used to be. It is the journey between those two dates that has come to define the checkered legacy of America’s 46th president.
Biden’s credibility in West Asia is on fire and he is in danger of leaving a dark legacy that his successors will try to erase from the pages of history. But his failures on other issues too have been shocking.
However, let’s start with their sunny moments first.
A hero’s welcome in Germany
Last Friday, Biden quietly arrived in Germany, almost unnoticed, to receive the country’s highest civilian award for his contributions to trans-Atlantic relations. The world’s most powerful leader walked next to German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier; Their slow, tentative steps felt as if a ghostly presence was walking along – a moment out of TS Eliot barren land: “Who is the third one who always walks with you?”
Biden’s farewell visit to Germany comes with a cloud of uneasiness hanging over Europe. The prospect of Donald Trump, their ‘chief in chief’, possibly returning to power has unsettled Berlin and Europe. They well remember Trump’s views on NATO, which left European members wondering whether the US was serious about defending Europe against a potential Russian attack.
The elusive third figure in Eliot’s poem may be Europe’s collective fear of a Trump redux. Steinmeier still bears the scars of those years (2016-2020), remembering the time when the US-Europe bond was weakening. He recalled, “…just a few years ago, the distance had grown so much that we had almost lost each other.” Thankfully, to the collective relief of Germany and Europe, Biden was quick to restore Europe’s confidence in the trans-Atlantic alliance “virtually overnight,” as the German president put it.
Certainly, Biden’s European outreach and climate action were two of the very few successes of his presidency.
Biden, Blinken and Bibi
As Israel continues to attack Lebanon and Gaza, one thing is abundantly clear: American influence over Israeli decision-making has greatly diminished since the October 7 Hamas attacks. Certainly, Israel’s military can crush terrorist threats for the time being. But lasting peace? It is unlikely and uncertain. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in West Asia again, but like his boss, neither Benjamin alias ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu nor his Arab allies take him seriously. Biden has lost his credibility as an honest peace broker in the region, largely due to his weak dealings with Netanyahu and continuing daily massacres in the region. If war breaks out in West Asia, Biden could throw his own small farewell party to Kamala Harris’ campaign.
Trump had at least convinced Israel to sign the Abraham Accords peace accords between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Morocco. The purpose of these agreements is to normalize diplomatic relations, expand economic cooperation, and promote regional peace and stability. What does Biden have to show? The agreement with Saudi Arabia was almost ready for signature, but Hamas attacks pushed it back. And so far, Biden has not been able to persuade the warring sides in Gaza and Lebanon to reach a ceasefire agreement.
The Abraham Accords, a flawed Trump legacy
The Abraham Accords came as a ray of hope for West Asia. I also remember watching an interview with American-Israeli Rabbi Yaakov Israel Herzog, who had established himself in Saudi Arabia and boldly announced his plans to open the first Jewish community center in Riyadh. The Saudi rulers merely pretended not to notice. Everyone assumed that the peace agreement with Israel was practically signed, sealed and delivered. Visiting the Jewish State? It was almost possible, and it would have been some accomplishment.
But the thing is that the Palestinian issue was ignored in the Abraham Accords. Normalizing relations without mentioning Palestinian self-determination was, after all, unwise. This is a recipe for delicate peace. The real issues – borders, settlements, Jerusalem, refugees – were left out of scope. And let’s not forget that the Palestinian leadership was not even invited to the table. A peace agreement without a key partner was, at best, short-sighted.
Admittedly, Biden has inherited diplomatic confusion and an uphill battle. He was expected to dig deeper, plug the flaws in the agreement and put the Palestinian issue back on the agenda. But he did not do so. The result was Hamas’s deadly October attack. Now, the world is once again calling for a renewed focus on Palestinian statehood.
Host of other failures
Whoever gets the keys to the White House will inherit the dilemma of either trying to bring order to West Asia, which could overshadow US priorities in Europe and China, or dealing with all the Biden failures altogether. There is no doubt that Biden’s legacy in West Asia is in tatters; It carries the burden of extreme violence, death and destruction. Thousands of people, including women and children, have been killed, millions have been rendered homeless and large numbers have fled to safer countries. Israeli people are escaping the war and entering Cyprus. Many people in the area believe that it will take generations for these scars to disappear. One wonders whether Biden will ever reflect on his failures after leaving the White House.
Biden’s approach toward China has also faced scrutiny. His administration’s efforts to establish a coalition of like-minded countries, which includes India, have yielded mixed results. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) and the Quad security dialogue have been touted as key initiatives, but their effectiveness remains uncertain. China’s growing economic and military influence has important implications for global governance and regional stability.
Ukraine: spending money without any goal
Ukrainians are fearful of Donald Trump’s possible return to power after he has made it clear he will make a peace deal with Russia. He is also not in favor of America spending billions of dollars and sending weapons to Ukraine by plane. So Ukrainians would like to see Kamala Harris as president, because they believe she will continue to protect Ukraine and continue to help it with cash and weapons.
Under Biden, Pax Americana, the era of the US-led global order, is showing clear signs of decline. From the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan to America’s impotence in West Asia, Biden’s foreign policy has often been seen as reactive rather than proactive. The cowardly withdrawal from Kabul in 2021, which left behind chaos and emboldened the Taliban, sent a message that US military power no longer guarantees stability in the areas it occupies. This failure, followed by Washington’s inconsistent handling of alliances, signaled a retreat from the role of a ‘global enforcer’ that the US has played since World War II.
China-Russia question
Tellingly, Biden’s response to the growing influence of China and Russia has been less strong, which is weakening US hegemony. While efforts such as the Quad alliance aim to balance China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, Beijing continues to expand its influence through economic investment, military stance, and diplomatic and multilateral efforts such as the Belt and Road Initiative and BRICS. Additionally, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has drawn attention to the limits of American deterrence.
The decline of Pax Americana may not have started under Biden, but it certainly accelerated under him. Domestically, Biden’s presidency has focused on economic recovery, social justice, and climate action. The American Rescue Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act have helped to stabilize the economy and address social issues to some extent. However, bipartisan cooperation has been more elusive than ever, and many of Biden’s initiatives have faced resistance from Congress.
If Donald Trump wins on November 5, Biden’s legacy could be consigned to the dustbin of history. But if Kamala Harris comes out on top, she will have to work very hard to save it while defining her legacy.
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with western media)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
