Recent US intelligence reports indicate that Iran is unlikely to reopen the Strait of Hormuz any time soon, as control over the key oil chokepoint remains its main advantage against the United States, Reuters reported.Click here for live updatesTehran, which controls one side of the sea route, has effectively blocked the strait in response to the February 28 United States-Israel attacks, which triggered the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. About 20% of the world’s crude oil supply passes through waterways.
Sources say Iran may continue to disrupt traffic to keep global energy prices high, increasing pressure on US President Donald Trump to end the nearly five-week war, which has been unpopular with US voters. The conflict would also have strengthened Iran’s regional position by demonstrating its ability to threaten a vital trade route.Trump has downplayed the difficulty of reopening the strait, and suggested that US forces could do it quickly.“With a little more time, we could easily open the Strait of Hormuz, take the oil, and make a fortune,” he posted on Truth Social.Read this also ‘Can easily open Hormuz, take oil and make fortune’: Trump makes ‘massive’ claimsHowever, analysts warn that military action would be risky and costly given Iran’s geographical advantage and ability to attack using drones, missiles and naval tactics.Since the war began, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has attacked commercial ships, deployed naval mines, and imposed passage fees, rendering the route unsafe and sharply reducing traffic. The actions have pushed oil prices to multi-year highs and created fuel shortages in countries dependent on Gulf exports, while also raising inflation risks in the US ahead of midterm elections.Intelligence sources say Iran is unlikely to give up this advantage even after the war. The Strait of Hormuz is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, with shipping lanes about 2 miles wide in each direction, making ships easy targets. Even limited attacks can disrupt transit.Even if the US secures parts of the coastline, Iran could still disrupt shipping using long-range capabilities from within its territory, experts say. Tehran may also seek to retain control to strengthen its negotiating position, secure detention, and generate revenues through transit fees for post-war reconstruction.