Home Market Insight Oil rose on fears of supply disruptions amid rising US-Venezuela tensions

Oil rose on fears of supply disruptions amid rising US-Venezuela tensions

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Oil prices rose on Monday, recovering part of last week’s 4% slide, as worries about potential disruptions from escalating US-Venezuela tensions outweighed lingering oversupply concerns and the effects of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal.

Brent crude futures were up 25 cents, or 0.4%, at $61.37 a barrel by 0055 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 23 cents, or 0.4%, at $57.67 a barrel.

“Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are swinging between optimism and caution, while tensions between Venezuela and the US are rising, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions,” said Tsuyoshi Ueno, senior economist at NLI Research Institute.

“Still, despite the lack of clear direction in markets, oversupply concerns remain strong and unless geopolitical risks escalate sharply, WTI could fall below $55 early next year.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky offered to abandon his country’s aspirations to join the NATO military alliance during five hours of talks with US ambassadors in Berlin on Sunday. The talks are to continue on Monday.

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      US Ambassador Steve Witkoff said “a lot of progress has been made,” although additional details were not released.

      On Friday, Ukraine’s military said it attacked a major Russian oil refinery in Yaroslavl, northeast of Moscow; Industry sources said the facility had suspended output.

      Russian state oil and gas revenues in December are likely to nearly halve to 410 billion rubles ($5.12 billion) from a year earlier due to lower crude prices and a stronger ruble, Reuters calculations showed on Friday.

      A potential peace deal could eventually increase Russian oil supplies, which are currently sanctioned by the West.

      Meanwhile, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado vowed political change after secretly leaving the country to receive the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday, as shock intensified after the Trump administration seized an oil tanker last week.

      According to shipping data, documents and maritime sources, Venezuela’s oil exports have fallen sharply after the seizure and new sanctions on shipping companies and vessels doing business with the Latin American oil producer.

      On the supply side, US energy companies last week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs for the second time in three weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday.

      ($1 = 80.0455 rubles)

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