Oil prices today (March 23): Crude oil steady above $110 as Middle East tensions send mixed signals. What’s next?

Oil prices were largely steady on Monday as investors balanced growing threats by the US and Iran to strike energy infrastructure against the prospect of oversupply, with millions of barrels of Iranian oil at sea expected to enter global markets after Washington eased sanctions.

Crude Oil Price on March 23

Brent crude slipped to $111 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, fell to around $98 after once again testing the $100 mark. Brent, the global benchmark, has risen more than 50% since the conflict began and is now in its fourth week, with little sign of de-escalation.

But investors remain on edge. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump warned Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz “fully, without risk” within 48 hours, or face strikes on its power plants, starting with its largest facility. Prices remain highly volatile, which also reflects Trump’s migration stance. Before issuing the ultimatum, he indicated that the US was considering ending military action against Iran.

Tehran responded by warning that any attack on its fuel infrastructure would retaliate by targeting energy, information technology and desalination assets linked to the US-Israeli presence in the region.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bakar Kalibaf said on X that if Iranian power plants were targeted, major infrastructure and energy facilities across the Middle East could be irreversibly damaged.

The conflict has already hit major energy installations in the Gulf and severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.

The conflict took a whole new turn after Iranian missile attacks targeted two towns in southern Israel near a nuclear facility, injuring many. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it had no information indicating any damage to the nuclear research facility, located about 13 km, or eight miles, outside Dimona. Iranian state television earlier said the attacks were in response to an attack on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility the same day.

What’s next?

Crude oil remains at the center of market concern. Although prices have seen some declines, Brent continues to trade at elevated levels near $110 a barrel, marking the sharpest bounce since the start of the conflict. For an import-dependent economy like India, SEBI-registered research analyst and founder of Livelong Wealth Hariprasad K.

Looking ahead, crude prices may go higher from current levels. According to Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Securities, oil could rise to $120 a barrel in the near term and possibly touch $150 if the conflict continues after a month and geopolitical tensions continue to rise.

Nuwama Institutional Equities echoes the same view. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20 million barrels per day, could push crude prices to the $110-150 per barrel range in the next 4-8 weeks. While the release of strategic reserves may provide some relief in the near term, it may lead to a recovery in demand as inventories are subsequently restocked.

Broader tensions are likely to rise above $125 per barrel. Revenues of oil marketing companies may come under severe pressure, LPG subsidy burden may increase significantly and risks to LNG throughput may increase. In such circumstances, the possibilities of policy intervention also increase. Overall, the first $40 per barrel increase in crude can be generally managed through tax adjustments, but beyond that, the strain on the system appears high, Elara said.

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