Oil prices today (April 14): Crude oil fell below $100 on reports of ongoing Iran-US peace talks. What’s next?

Iran and the US have left the door open for talks, and a US official said there was further momentum on trying to reach an agreement, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter. US President Donald Trump, meanwhile, said his administration had received a call from Iran, which is now keen to negotiate after the US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports.

“They want to make a deal so bad,” Trump said, speaking to reporters at the White House. He reiterated that the primary sticking point in the talks remains Iran’s nuclear ambitions, stressing that “Iran will not have nuclear weapons”.

Oil prices today

As a result, Brent crude futures fell nearly 2% to trade at $97.52 per barrel, while WTI crude futures fell more than 2% to $97.08 per barrel, seen at 7.20 am IST. Oil prices surpassed the crucial $100 mark in March for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, closing the Strait of Hormuz, and have held at that level for most of the time since.

Oil prices fell below the $100 level after Pakistan managed to mediate peace talks between Iran and the US earlier this month, roiling global markets and wiping out investors’ fortunes. However, peace talks collapsed over the weekend, with Iran and US leaders announcing that they had been unable to reach a deal. As a result, oil prices rose on Monday, with Brent crude surging above $100 a barrel.

“We agreed to a lot of things, but they didn’t agree to it and I think they’re going to agree to it. I’m almost sure of it. Actually, I’m sure of it,” Trump said of the failed peace talks over the weekend. When asked if his earlier threat that “the whole civilization will die” still stands if the ceasefire ends without a deal, the president declined to elaborate. “I don’t want to comment on it, but it won’t be pleasant for them. Let me put it that way,” he replied.

Calm before the storm?

Despite the renewed optimism, some caution is warranted. This is not the first time that oil prices have fallen before a major rally, as Trump is notorious for his decision flip-flops. Furthermore, the leaders of the two countries have not yet confirmed whether they will continue with peace talks, but instead talk of further military aggression.

Brendan Nelson, chairman of HSBC Holdings, said on Tuesday that a Middle East peace deal is needed to ensure a significant recovery in global energy flows, with oil-driven inflation emerging as a major threat to the world economy.

“The longer the disruption continues, the more the indirect effects of higher energy costs will lift inflation and depress growth,” Nelson said. ANZ analysts estimated that around 10 million barrels per day of crude supply had been effectively removed from the market, adding that a prolonged US blockade could curb an additional 3 million to 4 million barrels per day.

Even if tensions ease, oil prices are likely to remain supported in the $85 to $90 range, with a gradual move towards $110 as oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, brokerage firm Macquarie noted. It added that if disruptions extend into April, Brent could still rise to $150 a barrel.

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