Here are some of the key issues heading into Thursday’s UK general election:
– Will tired voters vote? –
The main opposition Labour Party is widely expected to win and has decided not to take any risks, leading to a lackluster election campaign.
For the last two years polls have shown that Labour is 20 points ahead of the Conservatives, and no amount of campaigning has changed the situation.
But if this reflects a desire for change after 14 years of Tory government, there does not appear to be much enthusiasm for Labour’s plans.
Indeed, Labor has repeatedly warned that it has no “magic wand” to transform the country overnight.
According to a YouGov poll this month, the indifference extends to both leaders, with 72 per cent having an unfavourable opinion of Tory leader Rishi Sunak and 51 per cent of Labour’s Keir Starmer.
This has raised the question of whether voters will turn out in large numbers, excited by the promise of change, or will stay home, weary of years of chaos and no particular love for party leaders.
Labor leaders have made no secret of their concern about voter apathy, with dozens of seats at stake and contested.
The voter turnout (67.3 percent in 2019) will be a signal of voters’ distrust of their political class, and a challenge for the next government.
– Lucky number eight for Farage? –
An unexpected addition to the campaign has been Nigel Farage, the Brexit key figure who has become a spokesman for hard-right, anti-immigration views, joining the race as leader of Reform UK.
Despite the huge surge in polls, the 60-year-old former European parliamentarian and his party are unlikely to win outright because of Britain’s first-past-the-post system.
Donald Trump’s ally Farage’s visibility will increase even further if he succeeds in his eighth attempt to gain a seat in parliament as MP for Clacton-on-Sea in eastern England.
If he fails, his startup Reform UK party, which currently has around 19 percent of the vote, could play a decisive role in the race between the Tories and Labour in many constituencies.
– Tory wiped out? –
Several polls suggest the party of Winston Churchill, Margaret Thatcher and Boris Johnson will win fewer than the 141 seats it won in 1906, its worst result since its formation in 1834.
Speculation has begun about who will lead the fractured party after Rishi Sunak.
It remains to be seen how many big names will be able to retain their seats and what direction the party, which was centrist under the leadership of David Cameron (2010-2015) and then moved to the right, will take.
In the event of reform’s success, some Tories would not object to a coalition.
– Weak Scottish Nationalist? –
Nothing is going well for the Scottish National Party (SNP), which has dominated the politics of the disintegrating nation for the past 15 years.
The sudden resignation of charismatic First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in 2023 brought instability to the party. Her successor, Humza Yousaf, only lasted a year in office.
The left-wing party remains the target of investigations into its finances, including into Sturgeon’s husband, and has no viable strategy for achieving independence, a fight that was revived by Brexit but blocked by London.
First Minister John Swinney insisted that winning a majority of Scotland’s 59 parliamentary constituencies would be a green signal for him to begin fresh talks with the new government in London over another referendum.
The SNP currently has 43 seats. But the Labour Party is going to use its national momentum to re-establish its dominance in Scotland. July 4 is expected to be the first electoral test of the difficulties of the pro-independence movement.
– The return of the Liberal Democrats? –
Ed Davey has taken on a unique adventure that has seen him sliding down waterslides, falling off a paddleboard, roasting marshmallows, building sand castles, bungee jumping and even Zumba dancing.
His stunts and policies have served to carve out a niche for his Liberal Democrat party, while Sunak and Starmer feud, Farage makes a comeback and the Labour Party moves back to centre ground.
According to a YouGov poll, the Liberal Democrats’ vote share has increased to around 12 per cent and their strong presence in southern England could give them 67 seats, up from 11 in 2019.
Such a victory would resemble the party’s success in 2010, when it governed with the Conservatives, and would bolster its pro-Europe and climate-focused policies.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
