Dr. Alan Lichtman, a leading presidential historian, has reiterated his prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election against former President Donald Trump, and dismissed concerns about an “October surprise” influencing the outcome.
Dr. Lichtman, an American university professor and famous for accurately predicting nine out of the last ten US elections, made his prediction in early September.
In an interview with CNN’s Michael Smerconish, Dr. Lichtman said, “One of the greatest myths of American politics is the October surprise. I have never changed my prediction in response to an October surprise because the keys to the current regime’s strength lie in great Guess the picture.” And not be influenced by campaign events.”
Dr. Lichtman’s “keys” refer to a system of 13 categories he uses to assess the viability of each candidate for president. In September, he said Mrs. Harris had an edge in eight of the 13 keys, while Trump had an edge in three.
Historically, Dr. Lichtman’s claim about the insignificance of the “October Surprise” is supported by precedent. Before the 2016 election, a leaked “Access Hollywood” tape showed Trump making controversial comments about women. Regardless of the outcome, Trump ultimately won the election, which Lichtman predicted based on his major system.
Lichtman confirmed, “I’ve never changed a prediction in 40 years, and I’m not doing that now.” The scholar, who identifies himself as a registered Democrat, claims to have accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential race since 1984. However, some critics highlight inconsistencies in his reasoning over the years, particularly in relation to the 2000 and 2016 elections.
Despite his unwavering prognosis for Harris, Dr. Lichtman stressed the importance of voter participation. “The result depends on you, so get out and vote,” he urged.
According to the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate, recent polling data shows Mrs Harris has a slight lead over Donald Trump and has a two percentage point advantage in multi-candidate polls.
As the election approaches, all eyes will be on whether Dr. Lichtman’s predictions come true.
