The northern summer of 2024 will see the highest global temperatures ever recorded, breaking last year’s record, the European Union’s climate watchdog said on Friday, and this year will likely be the hottest year ever on Earth. Data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service followed heatwaves around the world, which scientists said have been intensified by human-driven climate change.
“During the last three months of 2024, the world has experienced the hottest June and August on record, the hottest day on record, and the hottest boreal summer on record,” Copernicus deputy director Samantha Burgess said in a report.
“This series of record temperatures is increasing the likelihood that 2024 will be the hottest year ever.”
The average global temperature at the Earth’s surface in August was 16.82 degrees Celsius, according to Copernicus, which is based on billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations.
Global temperatures in June and August exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average – a critical threshold for limiting the worst impacts of climate change.
Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are warming the planet, increasing the likelihood and intensity of climate disasters such as droughts, fires and floods.
The cyclical weather phenomenon El Niño will increase the heat in 2023 and early 2024, although Copernicus scientist Julian Nicolaus told AFP the effect was not as strong as it sometimes is.
Meanwhile, the opposite cyclical cooling phenomenon, known as La Nina, has not yet begun, he said.
Emissions reduction
Bucking the global trend, regions such as Alaska, the eastern United States, parts of South America, Pakistan and the Sahel desert region of North Africa experienced below-average temperatures in August, the report said.
But other countries such as Australia – where it was winter -, China, Japan and parts of Spain experienced record heat in August.
The report showed that globally, August 2024 temperatures would match the global temperature record from a year earlier, while this June was hotter than the previous June.
The month of July in 2023 will be slightly hotter than this year, but the average three-month period will break records in 2024.
Governments have set targets under the 2015 Paris Agreement to reduce planet-warming emissions in their countries to keep the increase below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Scientists will not consider this limit to be definitely crossed until it is seen to be crossed over several decades. According to the World Meteorological Organization, the current average level of temperature increase is about 1.2 degrees Celsius.
Copernicus said the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark has been crossed in 13 of the last 14 months.
wildfires, storms
The oceans are also warming to record levels, increasing the risk of more intense storms.
Outside the poles, the average sea surface temperature in August was just under 21 degrees Celsius, the second highest for that month on record, Copernicus said.
It said August was “drier than average across most of continental Europe” – citing wildfires in countries such as Greece.
But places like western Russia and Türkiye received above-normal rainfall and there was flooding in some places.
Above normal rainfall occurred across the eastern United States, including areas affected by Hurricane Debby.
“If we do not take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the temperature-related extreme events seen this summer will become even more intense, with even more devastating consequences for people and the planet,” said Burgess, Copernicus deputy director.
Some researchers say emissions in some major countries have already peaked or will soon, thanks in part to the move to low-carbon energy.
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