US President Donald Trump has publicly predicted an imminent deal to end the Iran war at least 38 times since March, according to CNN’s tally, with each claim followed by no final agreement.This pattern began on March 23, less than a month after the American and Israeli attacks on Iran began on February 28. Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump declared “major points of agreement, I would say, almost all points of agreement.” Iran denied that any talks were taking place.Within days, Trump’s predictions became more powerful. On March 25, he said that Iran “wants a compromise very badly.” On 26 March, he claimed that Iran was “begging for a compromise”. On March 30, he posted on Truth Social that “huge progress has been made,” but warned that if an agreement was not reached soon, the US would “blow up and completely destroy all their electric generating plants”.
an armistice that was not an agreement
On April 7, Trump announced a ceasefire, saying the two sides were “far apart” but needed two weeks to “get the deal finalized and done.” No final agreement was followed.But Trump kept making predictions. On April 15, he told Fox Business: “I see it very close to being over.” On April 16, he told reporters: “It looks great that we’re going to make a deal with Iran.” On April 17, in three separate presentations, he said Iran had “agreed on everything” and predicted a deal “in the next day or two.”As of April 30, Iran was still “dying to make a deal”, according to Trump. On May 7, he told reporters at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool that a compromise “may not happen, but it could happen any day”.
‘We are in the final stages’
Fox News’ chief political analyst suggested Trump may be sending different messages to different audiences — trying to calm petroleum markets while maintaining a tough stance toward Tehran.On June 11, Trump announced that he had canceled planned attacks against Iran and claimed that a “great deal” had been reached. He told reporters in the Oval Office that the signing could take place “over the weekend in Europe.” Trump said, Vice President JD Vance will represent America.But Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghai said reports of the agreement were “speculation” and “nothing has been finalized”. He said the US had made “excessive demands” and added “new requests”.Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who is mediating between the two sides, posted on social media that “the final, agreed text of the peace agreement” had been reached, adding that he was working closely with both sides to finalize next steps.As of Friday, no deals have been signed. Trump’s latest claim, that a deal could be reached “over the weekend or on Monday”, would be his 38th or 39th prediction if it also fails to materialize.
suspicion of insider trading
A BBC report shows how Trump’s Iran war declarations have been accompanied by a sustained pattern of suspicious trading, with massive bets placed in financial markets minutes before his market-moving statements were made public.On March 9, traders bet heavily on falling oil prices, 47 minutes before Trump told CBS that the war was “pretty complete”. When this news came, oil fell 25%. Those traders earned millions.On March 23, $1.5 billion in S&P futures and $192 million in oil futures were traded 14 minutes before Trump posted on Truth Social about a “total solution” with Iran. Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy called it “larger than any futures purchase made at the time.”
How do you view Trump’s continued claims about impending deals with Iran?
On June 11, a $920 million crude oil short was placed 70 minutes before an Axios report on a potential US-Iran deal. When oil prices fell 12%, those shorts made a $125 million profit.At prediction markets like Polymarket, six new accounts bet $1.2 million on US attacks against Iran on exactly February 28 – the day they occurred. Another user bet $570,000 on Nicolas Maduro being taken out, hours before US special forces captured him.Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman called it “futures market treason.” Democratic lawmakers have called for an investigation, but the CFTC has not confirmed any investigation. One financial regulation expert said that enforcement is difficult: even with clear evidence, “there is a strong possibility that no one will be prosecuted.”